人民币贸易国际化程度及影响因素的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on the Degree and Influential Factors of RMB Trade Internationalization

作　　者：贾利军[1] 刘宜轩[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学悉尼工商学院,上海嘉定201800

出　　处：《经济问题》2016年第7期48-54,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"产品内国际分工下中国外贸比较优势测算;方法改进;实证度量与政策含义"(12YJC790074);国家社会科学基金一般项目"丝绸之路经济带与俄跨欧亚发展带对接研究"(15BJL080)

摘　　要：人民币在国际范围内的使用率不断提高,人民币国际化的进程将由从结算货币到投资货币再到储备货币逐步升级,其中人民币贸易国际化程度将成为人民币国际化水平的风向标。通过对人民币贸易国际化程度的测度和以VAR模型为基础进行的各因素对人民币贸易国际化影响作用的分析发现,人民币的国际化程度在贸易领域内有着较为明显的提高。其中,工业增加值对人民币贸易国际化有着持久的正面影响;贸易竞争优势短期内对人民币贸易国际化造成显著的不利影响,长期内负面影响有所减弱;汇率对人民币贸易国际化的影响效果最大,人民币贬值使人民币贸易国际化程度大幅降低;外汇储备能促进人民币贸易国际化的发展。With the usage of RMB has increased, RMB internationalization is developed from settlement curren- cy to investment currency to reserve currency. The degree of RMB trade internationalization will become weather vane of the level of RMB internationalization. Based on measuring the degree of RMB trade internationalization, and explores the effects of several relative factors through VAR model,it find that the degree of RMB trade interna- tionalization has increased. The added value remains persistent positive influence on RMB trade internationalization; trade Competitive Index has strong negative effect in short -term, while the negative effect will reduce in long - term; the effect of exchange rate is the largest, RMB depreciation results in decrease of trade internationalization; foreign reserve also could promote the development of RMB trade internationalization

关 键 词：人民币国际化 贸易 影响因素 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]