气候变化对华北平原主要农作物生长影响研究——以冬小麦、夏玉米为例  

Impact of Climate Change on Growth of Main Crops in North China Plain: A Case Study of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize

作　　者：肖薇薇[1,2,3] 许晶晶[4] 

机构地区：[1]安康学院,陕西安康725000 [2]陕西省安康市汉江水资源保护与利用工程技术研究中心,陕西安康725000 [3]中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心,河北石家庄050021 [4]江西省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,江西南昌330200

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2016年第6期65-70,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：陕西省教育厅项目(14JK1017);安康学院高层次人才科研专项(2015AYQDZR04)

摘　　要：为了探讨未来气候变化对华北平原区农业生产的可能影响,收集了中国科学院栾城试验站15年的田间试验资料,下载了Had CM3气候模式A2、B2情景下2050s以及2080s气象资料,将降尺度后的气象资料输入DSSAT模型,模拟了未来冬小麦、夏玉米生育期、耗水量和产量的变化。结果表明:在未来气候情景下,栾城日均温将明显升高,冬小麦、夏玉米的生育期均将缩短,耗水量总体上均减少,冬小麦产量增加,夏玉米产量下降;将现有的中熟玉米品种调整为晚熟品种后,在未来气候情景下,冬小麦的生育期将缩短,耗水量将减少,产量将明显增加,而夏玉米的生育期将延长,耗水量将增加,产量将与现在相差不大。因此,调整作物品种是华北平原未来农业适应气候变化的重要途径。In order to explore the possible effects of the future climate changes on the agricultural production in north China plain,we collected 15-year field experimental data from Luancheng Experimental Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences,downloaded the meteorological data under Had CM3 A2 or B2 scenarios in 2050 s / 2080 s,used SDSM model to downscale the data from Had CM3,and applied DSSAT model to simulate the changes in the growth period,water consumption,and grain yield of winter wheat and summer maize in future. The results showed that： under the future climate scenarios,the daily mean temperature in Luancheng would increase obviously,the growth duration of both winter wheat and summer maize would shorten,their water consumption would decrease,the yield of wheat winter would increase,and the grain yield of summer maize would decrease. After adjusting maize medium- maturing varieties to late- maturing varieties,under the future climate scenarios,the growth duration of winter wheat would shorten,its water consumption would decrease,and grain yield would significantly increase; but the growth duration of summer maize would extend,its water consumption would increase,and grain yield would change little. Therefore,adjusting crop varieties is an important approach to adapt to the future climate changes in north China plain.

关 键 词：气候变化 耗水量 生育期 产量 冬小麦 夏玉米 华北平原 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]