湖北省旅游发展与经济增长的关系研究——基于2000-2015年数据的协整性检验和格兰杰因果检验  

The Correlation Analysis of Tourism Development and Economic Growth of Hubei——Based on the Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test Model form 2000 to 2015

作　　者：黄凤琦 程道品[2] 段文军[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学旅游学院,广西桂林541006 [2]桂林旅游学院,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《武汉工程职业技术学院学报》2016年第2期31-33,共3页Journal of Wuhan Engineering Institute

摘　　要：为研究湖北旅游发展与经济增长之间的关系,通过运用Eviews7.2软件,采取协整性检验和格兰杰因果检验的研究方法,对2000-2015年的时序数据进行实证研究。研究表明湖北省生产总值与湖北省旅游总收入存在长期均衡关系,生产总值每增加1%,旅游总收入将增加1.21%,虽然湖北经济发展与旅游发展存在着相关性,但是湖北省经济的发展较大程度促进旅游的发展,而旅游发展对经济的促进作用不够明显。同时,据此表明旅游发展的基础是发展经济;旅游业不适宜作为湖北主导产业;目前湖北旅游业具有较大的发展潜力。最后,提出促进湖北旅游发展的相关建议。This article studies the relation between tourism development and economic growth in Hu‐bei ,through the use of Eviews7 .2 software ,taking co‐integration test and Granger causality test methods through time‐series data of empirical research from 2000 to 2015 .The studies have shown that the total value of production of long‐term equilibrium relation between tourism revenues and economic grow th of Hubei Province .When GDP increases by 1% ,the total tourism revenue will increase by 1 .21% .Even though the correlation between tourism development and economic growth of Hubei do exists and economic development of the province promotes the development of tourism to a large extent ,the contribution of tourism development to economy is not obvious .Thus ,the basis of tourism development relies on econom‐ic development ,and it is not possible to run tourism as a leading industry in Hubei .Hubei tourism indus‐try currently has a large potential for development .Finally ,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the tourism development of Hubei province .

关 键 词：湖北 旅游发展 经济增长 协整性检验 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F590.3[经济管理—旅游管理]