适应气候变化的中国粮食安全及经济增长研究——基于静态多区域农业一般均衡模型  

Grain Security and Economic Growth in China Adapting to Climate Change:Based on Multi-Regional General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：黄德林[1] 李新兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农学学报》2016年第6期78-116,共39页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)"气候变化对我国粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究"(SQ2010CB553502)中的"气候变化驱动的我国粮食生产系统空间数值模拟预测研究"(2010CB951504)子课题"我国粮食生产适应气候变化的政策研究"(2010CB951504-5);中国农业科学院科技创新工程[05(ASTIP-IAED-2015-05)]

摘　　要：采用静态多区域农业一般均衡模型,把A2气候变化情景和B2气候变化情景导致粮食产量变化作为政策模拟条件,笔者研究了气候变化对中国粮食生产、消费及其经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示,无论是A2还是B2气候变化情景,中国玉米、小麦和水稻总体产出增加态势较为明显,中间投入需求和家庭消费需求明显增加,同时模拟结果还显示中国各地区玉米、小麦和水稻的出口将会随着产出的增长而大幅增加、进口随着产出的增加而大幅下降。在经济增长方面,绝大多数地区宏观经济呈增长态势,表现在实际GDP、实际投资、总进出口额的增加。基于研究结果本研究得出如下结论:气候变化会导致中国粮食总产量增加,中国经济增长得以保障。气候变化所引起的粮食产量变化地区间有所差异,总的来说,粮食主产区增长幅度要高于非主产区增长幅度,其中东北三省粮食增幅最为明显;不同作物产量因时(时间)因景(气候变化情景)有较大差异;虽然气候变化导致中国各地区粮食产量总体呈增加态势,但未来不确定因素较多,中国粮食安全问题仍不可忽视。This paper studied the effect of climate change on grain security and economic growth in China.With a static multi-regional computable general equilibrium（MGCGE） model, the authors conducted policysimulations for 31 Chinese provinces and autonomous districts on the basis of grain yield projections under theA2（high emissions） and B2（medium-low emissions） climate change scenarios. The results showed that： underboth climate change scenarios, maize, wheat and rice production would grow significantly. Consumptiondemand of livestock, industry, seed and household would grow significantly. As production increases, exports ofthe three grains will increase, and imports decrease. Most provinces would experience growth in real GDP, realinvestments, and net exports. The main conclusions of our study were as followed：（1） climate change will boostChina＇s grain production, strengthen economic growth;（2） grain production growth resulting from climatechange exhibit considerable regional variations; poduction would grow faster in major grain productionprovinces, such as the three northeast provinces, than in the rest of the nation;（3） production growth differed inmagnitude under different climate change scenarios;（4） in light of the uncertainty in many socio-economic and environmental factors, grain food security should continue to be watched closely by China＇spolicy makers.

关 键 词：气候变化 粮食 影响 一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]