滦河流域未来土地利用变化情景的水文响应  

Hydrological responses to land use change under three future scenarios in Luanhe River Basin

作　　者：李莹[1] 黄岁樑[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境污染过程与基准教育部重点实验室,水环境数值模拟研究室,天津市城市生态环境修复与污染防治重点实验室,南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300350

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2016年第7期1970-1980,共11页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51079068);天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(09ZCGYSF00400);天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划(15JCYBJC22500)资助

摘　　要：以滦河流域相关规划为基准,设置现状延续、经济发展优先和生态保护优先3种土地利用发展情景,应用CLUE-S模型预测滦河流域2030年土地利用;并应用SWAT模型模拟3种情景的水文过程,对比不同发展情景下流域未来水文过程,识别各情景中产沙关键源区。结果表明:2030年,3种情景中流域中游承德市及周围县扩张最为显著;地表径流方面,生态保护优先情景中最小(11.34 mm·a^(-1)),分别为现状延续与经济发展优先情景的47.51%和46.02%;地下径流方面,经济发展优先情景最小(7.94 mm·a^(-1)),分别为现状延续与生态保护优先情景的51.90%和23.26%;产沙方面,生态保护优先情景(0.35×10~5kg·km^(-2)·a^(-1))比其他情景减少约60%;流域水土保持方面,生态保护优先情景效果最好,现状延续情景土壤侵蚀严重,经济发展优先情景水源涵养不理想。研究区可按照现状延续模式继续发展,但应根据产沙空间特征进行分区治理,重点治理流域的产沙关键源区,适当调整土地利用方式。According to the related planning, CLUE-S model was applied to simulate and analyze the future characters of land use changes under three future scenarios （i.e., trend scenario, economic development scenario, and ecological protection scenario） in the Luanhe River Basin. Accordingly, hydrological processes, such as surface runoff, groundwater flow, and sediment yield under the three scenarios, were explored by the SWAT model. At the same time, we revealed the differences of hydrological characters and identified the critical areas of sediment yield under the three scenarios in the Luanhe River Basin. The results showed that the hotspots of construction land expansion could be located in the vicinity of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin under the three scenarios in 2030. Different characters of hydrological processes in the different scenarios were observed. The annual average surface runoff （11.34 mm·a^-1） was the smallest under the ecological protection scenario, equaling to 47.51% and 46.02% of that under the trend scenario and ecological protection scenario, respectively. The annual average groundwater flow （7.94 mm·a^-1） was the smallest under the economic development scenario, equaling to 51.90% and 23.26% of that under the trend scenario and ecological protection scenario, respectively. The annual average sediment yield was the smallest under ecological protection scenario, being 0.35×10^5 kg·km^-2·a^-1. Compared with the trend scenario and economic development scenario, annual average sediment yield was obviously reduced by 60% under the ecological protection scenario. The ecological protection scenario was most suitable for soil and water conservation. Under the trend scenario, soil erosion was the strongest, while the economic development scenario had the worst water conservation. Therefore, the current land use planning can be implemented in the Luanhe River Basin, but the partitioning management should be implemented based on spatial distribution of so

关 键 词：CLUE-S模型 SWAT模型 土地利用 径流 产沙 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] F301.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]