基于证据理论的森林火险等级评价方法  

A method based on evidence theory for the forest fire danger rating evaluation

作　　者：党宏社[1] 李振伟[1] 付晓军[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西科技大学电气与信息工程学院,陕西西安710021

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2016年第5期701-704,共4页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：陕西省社会发展科技攻关项目"基于无线传感网络的泥石流监测预警关键技术研究"(2015SF275)

摘　　要：基于D-S证据理论的方法,利用模糊集合确定证据理论中的基本概率分配函数。建立森林火险综合评估模型,将火险等级与各气象因子之间建立有机联系,并对历史森林火灾数据进行仿真分析。结果表明,基于证据理论的评价模型能够有效地对森林火险等级做出科学评价,为森林火灾的预防与治理提供科学的依据。The method of D--S evidence theory was applied, fuzzy set was used to determine the basic probability assignment function of evidence theory. The comprehensive evaluation model of forest fire was established, the organic connection between fire danger rating and the meteorological factors was estab lished, and the historical data was simulated and analyzed. The results showed that the model of evaluation based on evidence theory can effectively make scientific evaluation to forest fire, and provide scientific basis for prevention and management of forest fire.

关 键 词：森林火灾 证据理论 模糊集合 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学] S762.3[农业科学—森林保护学]