我国地方政府债务的可持续性分析  

Sustainability analysis on local government debts in China

作　　者：刘楠楠[1] 侯臣[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《经济学家》2016年第7期50-57,共8页Economist

摘　　要：本文通过融资估计方法重新核算地方政府债务规模,评估地方政府债务的可持续性。结果发现,我国地方政府债务的实际规模明显高于公开统计的数据,但未超过国际警戒线,风险暂时可控;当面临经济减速、利率提高两类冲击时,地方政府债务仍具备一定的可持续性,我国有财政缓冲区间来应对;然而,当面临土地财政减收的冲击时,可持续性较弱,极易引发金融风险和财政风险。In 2008, the U.S. subprime crisis resulted in the global economic crisis. Our economy faced downward pressure. The Chinese government implemented a series of economic incentives which were closely related with the infrastructure. These incentives were mainly manifested by the credit expansion which was implemented by LGFV, and the relative data was not included in the fiscal data, which would have a negative impact on measuring the real level of the local government debt and its sustainability. This paper uses the financial estimation method to measure the local government debt and the deficit, and assesses the local government debt sustainability at the economic slowdown and rising interest rates. It still has a certain financial buffer space. However, in the face of land revenue halved, the risk of debt sustainability will increase.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 财政赤字 可持续性 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]