广东前汛期强对流天气分类流型及物理量阈值  

Classification pattern and physical threshold of severe convective weather during pre-flood period in Guangdong

作　　者：伍志方[1] 庞古乾[2] 郭春迓[1] 叶爱芬[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气象台,广东广州10080 [2]广东省气候中心,广东广州10080 [3]中国气象局热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州10080

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第3期166-175,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002;GYHY201406009;GYHY201506006);中国气象局关键技术集成项目(CMAGJ2014M39)~~

摘　　要：本文利用常规高空、地面和自动站观测资料,对2004-2013年广东前汛期分类强对流天气的影响系统及其位置和动态的详细分析和比较,归纳总结了不同类型强对流天气与影响系统之间的有机联系和显著区别,结果表明:大范围短时强降水大部分在高空槽影响下伴有纬向型切变线和低空急流,而区域性短时强降水更依赖于地面低槽的发展;大范围混合强对流天气多数与径向型切变线密切相关,低槽发展所带来的不稳定能量积蓄和冷锋的触发易使对流天气更强烈发展。建立了不同类型强对流天气的流型,总结了各流型天气系统特点和简化物理量指标及阈值,为今后广东强对流天气分析和分类预报提供了明确的思路和参考依据。In this paper, based on the conventional radiosonde and the surface observation data during the pre-flood periods from 2004 to 2013, the synoptic system position and the evolution of each type of severe convective weathers were analyzed and compared, and the relationship and the significant difference between different types of severe convective weathers and the synoptic systems were summarized. Results indicated that, large range of shorttime strong rainfalls were mostly affected by the upper troughs accompanied with the zonal shear lines and the lowlevel jets, while regional short-time strong rainfalls were more dependent on the development of the troughs on the ground. The large range of the mixture of the short-time strong rainfall and the damage gale were closely related to the radial shear line, while the convective weather would be developed more violently with the instable energy accu- mulated by the development of the trough on the ground and the trigger of the cold front. Then, the patterns of each type of the severe convective weathers were established, and the characteristics of each synoptic pattern and index thresholds of physical values were summarized. The study will provide clear ideas and the reference for the analysis and classification forecast of severe convective weather in Guangdong in the future

关 键 词：强对流天气 分类流型 物理量 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]