江西省农业碳排放测算及其影响因素分析  

Research on Measurement and Effecting Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：曹俊文[1] 曹玲娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学应用统计研究中心,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第7期66-68,167,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国30省区市碳足迹及省际间碳转移核算研究"(13BTJ024);江西省社发领域科技重大项目"江西省节能环保产业科技发展现状摸底调查分析研究"(20141BBG70009);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地研究项目"江西省节能减排产业发展现状与对策"(JD1572)

摘　　要：基于1995--2013年江西省农业主要碳排放源诸如耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量及农业机械动力等方面的统计数据，测算了江西省近20年来农业碳排放量及其变化，并探讨了碳排放的影响因素。根据测算结果显示，近20年来江西省农业碳排放在总量上逐年增加，而在碳排放量的构成中，化肥为最主要来源，其他构成依次为农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉等。在对影响农业碳排放的因素进行深入分析后，得知农业经济发展对碳排放量变化的影响最为明显，在抑制农业碳排放增长方面，农业生产效率、农业生产结构以及劳动力规模等发挥了重要作用，其中农业生产效率发挥的作用最大，抑制效果最为明显，而农业生产结构和农业劳动力规模也达到了一定的抑制效果，但效果甚微。Based on the main carbon emission sources in Jiangxi Province, such as the area of cultivated land, the effective irrigation area, the amount of fertilizer application and the power of agricultural machinery, we measured the agricultural carbon emission and its changes in Jiangxi Province in recent 20 years, and explored the influencing factors of carbon emissions. According to the calculation results, in recent 20 years, the total amount of agricultural carbon emission in Jiangxi Province had increased year by year. In the composition of carbon emissions, fertilizer was the most important source of carbon emissions, followed by pesticides, agricultural diesel, irrigation etc. After analyzing the factors that affected the agricultural carbon emission, we knew that the development of agricultural economy had the most significant impact on the change of carbon emissions. Agricultural production efficiency, the structure of agricultural production and the size of the labor force played an important role in inhibiting the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. The agricultural production efficiency was the most important inhibition effect factor, followed by the agricultural production structure and the scale of the agricultural labor force, but the effect was very small.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 影响因素 Kaya恒等式 江西省 

分 类 号：F323.22[经济管理—产业经济]