基于外资流动风险的中国经济安全状况分析  

Analysis of China's Economic Security in the View of FDI Flowing Risk

作　　者：刘诺[1] 余道先[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2016年第4期3-13,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(项目批准号:11BJL064);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(项目批准号:2015105010201)资助

摘　　要：随着经济全球化程度的不断加深,各国的经济往来日益密切,频繁流动的国际资本使一国对其他国家和世界经济的依赖性不断增强,于是因外资流动的风险所带来的一系列经济安全问题逐渐引起国内外学者的关注。该文在总结国家经济安全理论发展脉络,并选择符合我国国情的中国经济安全定义基础上,通过测算广义外资依存度和分析全球性经济危机传导机制,揭示了我国经济安全的现状。认为目前我国经济基本安全,但是也存在以下一些问题:我国外资增长率波动剧烈、投向第二产业和第三产业的外资增幅与其发展水平不相符、外资国别集中度高、全球性经济危机不仅显著影响了我国的国际收支和汇率,而且也长期影响我国的GDP增长率,且该影响很难随时间推移消除。Following the successive deepening in economic globalization, external economic exchanges between different countries are increasingly closer. The frequent transfer of international capital leads to countries＇ enhanced interdependence on each other, so that the problem of economic security resulted from FDI risk gives rise to lots of attention of domestic and foreign scholars. This paper firstly summarizes the development of national economic security theory and chooses a definition of China＇s economic security in accordance with our national conditions. Then this paper analyzes the current situation of China＇s economic security from two aspectsone is generalized foreign capital dependency the other is transmission of global crises. The conclusion is that our economy is mostly safe. However, there are some problems. The growth rate of foreign capital fluctuates remarkably. The increases of FDI input to secondary and tertiary industry do not match their developmental levels. The foreign capital focuses on few countries. Global crises signify affect China＇s balance of payments, exchange rate movement, as well as GDP growth rate in long term. Therefore it is vital to adjust current relevant policies, so as to decrease the influence of foreign capital and external environment on our nation＇s economy and enhance further our economic safety.

关 键 词：外资风险 中国经济安全 外资依存度 全球性危机 

分 类 号：F125.1[经济管理—世界经济]