台风“鲇鱼”的路径强度突变机理分析  

Mechanism Analysis on Track and Intensity of Typhoon “MEGI”

作　　者：戴晶[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院 [2]92866部队水文气象中心

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2016年第11期271-272,276,共3页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

摘　　要：采用NCEP(National Center of Environmental Prediction)的FNL(Final Analysis)数据以及卫星资料初步研究了1013号台风"鲇鱼"(MEGI),主要通过温度平流、涡度平流、Q矢量散度、高空急流、台风内部结构等方面,对台风移动路径、强度突变和内部结构作出分析,尝试寻找到具有指示作用的要素。发现温度平流特别是低层的温度平流对于台风的移动有较明显的指示作用,暖平流的高值区引导台风向其运动,且台风的移动还受到中纬度西风槽和西太平洋副热带高压的作用。西风急流对于台风强度的影响也是不可忽视的,正是急流南部反气旋式切变的影响,为"鲇鱼"的第2次发展提供了条件。同时台风的内结构也对于其强度有着明显的影响,其内部涡旋Rossby波的存在对于能量的传递起到了重要的作用。通过此次尝试,希望能够对于台风移动路径、强度突变的预报提供帮助。By using FNL （Final Analysis ）grid data provide by NCEP （National Center of Environmental Prediction ）and satellite data, the trajectory,intensity and structure of typhoon ＂MEGI＂ were preliminarily studied ,upper jet stream and internal structure of typhoon were analyzed by means of the temperature advection, vortices advection, Q vector divergence, trying to find out some indicated elements. It＇s found that the temperature advection especially those in low layers obviously can direct the direction of the typhoon. It goes toward to the high value area of the warm advection. By the same time, the movement of typhoon is ＇affected by the mid-latitude westerly trough and West Pacific Subtropical High. The westerly jet plays an important role in the intensity of the typhoon. Located in the south of the jet, ＂MEGI＂ can turn to the super typhoon again by anticyclonic shear. At the same time,the internal structure of typhoon,like the vortex Rossby wave,can easily affect the intensity of typhoon,as well as the transportation of energy. There is some help may be offered to improve the forecast of the trajectory, intensity of typhoons.

关 键 词：台风 路径转折 强度 温度平流 Q矢量散度 

分 类 号：P458.124[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]