高速公路养护工程量预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Expressway Maintenance Work Amount

作　　者：付浩然[1] 姚玉玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,西安市710064

出　　处：《北方交通》2016年第6期79-81,85,共4页Northern Communications

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CHD2011ZD006)

摘　　要：为了科学、合理地预测高速公路养护工程数量,以高速公路养护工程为依托,建立多元线形回归分析预测模型、神经网络、灰色系统理论预测模型,对沥青路面坑槽和裂缝养护维修量进行了预测。研究结果表明:多元线性回归预测模型在沥青路面坑槽和裂缝养护维修量中的预测优于其他预测模型,是养护工程预测模型的最佳选择。In order to predict the expressway maintenance work amount scientifically and reasonably,basing on expressway maintenance work,the prediction model of adopting multi- element linear regression analysis on prediction model,neural network,and grey system theory is built,and the prediction on pit slot and crack maintenance amount of asphalt pavement is performed. The research result shows that the prediction of multi-element linear regression prediction model in pit slot and crack maintenance amount of asphalt pavement is superior to that of other prediction model,which is the best choice for prediction model of maintenance work.

关 键 词：高速公路 养护工程量 预测模型 多元线性回归预测 

分 类 号：U415.13[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]