1990-2012年淮河流域粮食生产的时空演进及驱动机制  

Evolution of Temporal-spatial Pattern of Grain Production and Its Driving Mechanism in Huaihe River Basin During 1990-2012

作　　者：高军波[1,2,3] 刘彦随[2] 张永显 

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院城市与环境科学学院,河南信阳464000 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]乔治亚南方大学地质与地理系,美国乔治亚州30458

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2016年第3期179-185,192,共8页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于个体时空行为的城市公共服务消费空间;社会剥夺与规划调控研究"(41401171);"城乡发展转型的资源环境效应及其优化调控研究:以环渤海地区为例"(41130748);教育部人文社科基金(14YJCZH028);国家留学基金([2013]5045)

摘　　要：[目的]动态研究粮食连增及农业政策调整背景下淮河流域1990—2012年的粮食产量时空变化进程及影响因素,为淮河流域科学合理粮食安全政策构建提供理论参考。[方法]采用区域重心计算模型和空间自相关技术。[结果](1)淮河流域粮食总产量及县域均值持续增长。高产县域集中在流域中游皖北地区,中高产县域逐步向中上游推进,低产县域日趋边缘化。(2)淮河流域粮食产量重心呈西进南移态势变动,西进速率减缓,南北波动幅度较小,空间格局趋向稳定。(3)县域粮食产量分布呈显著空间聚集性特征,且有持续增强趋势。高产县域聚集于流域中游豫皖交界及下游苏中沿海地区;低产县市逐步集中连片聚集于流域上游豫西北边缘地区;高—低与低—高聚集县域规模较小,空间分布变化剧烈。[结论]水土资源变化、农业新技术及政策倾斜、种粮比较效益等主导因素共同驱动流域粮食产量空间格局演进。[Objective]With the continuous increase in grain output and agricultural policies adjustment during 1990—2012,the temporal-spatial evolution of grain production and its driving mechanism was studied in order to provide theoretical support for food security policy making in Huaihe River basin.[Methods]The space center and spatial pattern of grain production were analyzed dynamically based on the regional gravity model and spatial autocorrelation method.[Results]（1）The total grain output and per county grain output increased since 1990 s.The counties with high grain production distributed in the middle part of Huaihe river basin,while the counties with average grain production distributed toward the middle and up part of the basin.（2）The space center of grain production in Huaihe river basin moved to west and south and the center of grain production moved to the Shuixi County of Anhui Province from the Central Jiangsu Province during the study period,and the spatial pattern tend to be stable.（3）The counties with high grain production tend to aggregate in the junction area between He＇nan and Anhui Province and the counties in coastal area of Central Jiangsu Province.While the counties with low grain production tended to cluster in the edge area of western He＇nan Province.The number of counties with the aggregation of high-low and low-high is small,but its spatial distribution changed greatly.[Conclusion]The dominant factors,such as water and soil resources change,new agricultural technology and policy inclination,grain comparative benefits,common drive the evolution ofbasin spatial pattern of food production.

关 键 词：粮食生产 时空演变 驱动机制 淮河流域 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济]