基于熵值法和灰色预测模型的耕地生态安全诊断  

Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：郑华伟[1,2] 夏梦蕾 张锐[2] 刘友兆[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学农村发展学院,江苏南京210095 [2]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2016年第3期284-289,296,共7页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"农村土地整治生态风险管控研究"(71403130);江苏省国土资源科技项目(201320);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学研究基金面上项目(SK2014008);南京农业大学人文社会科学重大招标项目(SKZD201302)

摘　　要：[目的]弥补已有耕地生态安全诊断中指标体系及评价方法的不足,分析耕地生态安全水平。[方法]在界定耕地生态安全内涵的基础上,构建了基于PSR模型的评价指标体系,采用熵值法和灰色预测模型,对四川省耕地生态安全水平进行了诊断。[结果]1999—2013年四川省耕地生态安全水平总体不断提高,耕地生态安全等级经历了"临界安全—较安全"的演变历程,但2013年"较安全"水平不高;压力指数总体上呈现下降趋势,状态指数呈现波动下降趋势,响应指数呈现上升趋势;单位耕地化肥负荷、人均耕地面积、单位耕地农药负荷、土地垦殖率、水土流失程度等是耕地生态安全等级提升的关键制约因素;2014—2018年四川省耕地生态安全水平呈现稳步上升趋势。[结论]基于PSR模型的评价指标体系能更准确地反映耕地生态安全各要素之间的关系;熵值法和灰色预测模型能有效挖掘耕地生态安全存在的问题,适合用于耕地生态安全评价。[Objective]To compensate for the defects in the evaluation index system and the used methods in the diagnosis on the cultivated land ecological security in order to analyze the ecological security level of cultivated land.[Methods]On the basis of defining the cultivated land ecological security,the evaluation index system for cultivated land ecological security was developed using the PSR（pressure-state-response）model,and then an empirical analysis was conducted in Sichuan Province by entropy method and grey prediction model.[Results]The ecological security of cultivated land in Sichuan Province was gradually improved from critically safe to safer level from 1999 to 2013,but the level of＂safer＂was not high in 2013.The pressure index and status index generally showed a downward trend,while the response indexes showed a upward trend.Crucial constraints on the improvement of cultivated land ecological security include fertilizer load per unit of cultivated land,cultivated land per capita,pesticides load per unit of cultivated land,land reclamation rate and soil erosion.The ecological security level of cultivated land in Sichuan Province would show a steady upward trend from 2014 to 2018.[Conclusion]These methods are suitable in the evaluation of cultivated land ecological security because the evaluation index system based on the PSR model can accurately reflect the relationship among various elements of the cultivated land ecological security,while the entropy method and grey prediction model can detect the problems in the cultivated land ecological security.

关 键 词：耕地生态安全 灰色预测模型 熵值法 PSR模型 四川省 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]