山区急弯路段行车安全性模糊综合评判分析方法（英文）  

Application of Fuzzy Synthesis Evaluation to Driving Safety Analysis of Sharp Curves on Mountain Expressways

作　　者：徐敏[1] 黄星[2] 张驰[2] 邵东建 

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2016年第6期186-197,共12页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：funded by the Basic Scientific Research of Central Universities,Chang'an University (No.CHD2013G2211005);the Postdoctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China (No. 2016M590915);the Basic Research Fund of Ministry of Transport of China(No.2014 319 812 170);the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2014BAG05B01)

摘　　要：为了分析山区高速公路不同路段危险性大小,给设计人员和道路安全管理人员提供参考,针对普遍存在危险的山区高速公路急弯路段,考虑道路线形、行驶速度、车型占比等因素的影响,进行了急弯路段行车安全性模糊综合评判的研究。分别以临界附着系数和荷载转移比作为小客车、大货车评价指标,采用仿真分析的方法得到评价指标具体数值,运用正交试验的方法确定影响因素及其权重向量,并得到评价指标的回归模型,在考虑小客车、大货车实际行驶速度不同以及车型占比不同的情况下,运用模糊综合评判的方法对数据进行分析,最终得到路段危险性大小。研究结果表明:行驶速度和圆曲线半径大小是影响行车安全的最主要因素;当高速公路线形相同时,小客车车型占比越高,发生交通事故的可能性越大;使用模糊综合评判的方法对急弯路段危险性大小进行分析和排序准确性较高,该方法可为设计人员修改道路线形,以及道路安全管理人员提高资金利用效能提供理论依据。Facing with widespread dangerous sharp sections on the mountainous expressways, the fuzzy synthesis evaluation for driving safety analysis of sharp curves on mountainous expressways was employed in order to analyze the risk extents in different sections of mountainous express- ways and provide a reference for road designers and safety managers. The influences of road a- lignment, driving speed and proportions of vehicle types were taken into account. Critical adhe- sion coefficient and load transfer ratio were respectively considered as evaluation index of passen- ger cars and large trucks, and simulation analysis method was used to get the specific values of the evaluation indexes. The influence factors and their weight vectors were determined with the orthogonal experiment method, then the regression model of evaluation indexes was got. Consid- ering different proportions of passenger cars and trucks and different driving speeds simultaneous- ly, the method of fuzzy synthesis evaluation was used to analyze the data, and finally risk extents in sections were obtained. The results show that driving speed and circular curve radius are the most important factors which endanger the driving safety; when the expressways have the same alignment, the higher the proportion of passenger cars, the greater the possibility of traffic acci- dents; the method of fuzzy synthesis evaluation can achieve a higher accuracy in the risk extent a- nalysis and ranking of the sharp sections. This method can provide theoretical basis for the de- signers to modify the road alignment and for road safety managers to improve the efficiency of capital utilization.

关 键 词：道路工程 风险分析 模糊综合评判 平曲线路段 安全性分析 

分 类 号：U412.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]