基于时延赋色Petri网的交叉口群车辆旅行时间模糊预测  

Travel Time Fuzzy Prediction for Vehicles in Intersection Group Based on Timed Colored Petri Nets

作　　者：安毅生[1] 周洁[1] 杨临涧 徐志刚[1] 赵祥模[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学信息工程学院,陕西西安710064 [2]云南省道路运输管理局,云南昆明650031

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2016年第6期243-252,共10页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51278058;50978030);中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M521729);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划重点项目(2014JZ019);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310824162021)

摘　　要：为预测车辆在交叉口群的旅行时间,首先利用城市交通系统呈现的分布、并发特性,采用时延赋色Petri网(TCPN)进行模块化、层次化的建模,建立了包括输入/输出路段车流、交叉口车流、信号控制,以及交叉口群车流的TCPN模型;其次,利用模型的监视器获取仿真过程中车辆的紧迫程度、进出交叉口群的时戳、进出指定库所的时戳、库所容量等状态信息,在此基础上提出了基于紧迫程度和车流密度的车辆平均速率模糊推理算法,实现了对自由旅行路段上车辆平均速率以及车辆旅行时间的预测。试验结果表明:采用基于TCPN交通流模型和模糊推理相结合的仿真预测方法能够合理地对交叉口群中车辆旅行时间进行预测,并且相对于卡尔曼滤波预测方法,提出的方法平均绝对百分误差和均方根误差累计值分别降低了14.33%和22.98%。To forecast the travel time of vehicles in intersection group,the distribution and concurrence features of urban traffic system were used to build the modular and hierarchical TCPN model by using timed colored Petri nets firstly.The proposed model considered input/output road section traffic flow,intersection traffic flow,signal control and TCPN model for vehicles intersection group.Then the monitor of the model obtained the vehicle urgent degree,the timestamp of input/output of intersections,the timestamp of input/output of selected library,sink capacity and other state information in the simulation process.According to the obtained information,the fuzzy reasoning algorithm of average speed of vehicles was proposed based on vehicle urgent degree and density of the traffic flow to achieve the prediction for the average speed of vehicles and vehicle travel time in free travel section.The results show that the simulation prediction method based on the combination of timed colored Petri nets traffic flow model and fuzzy reasoning algorithm can predict a reasonable travel time of vehicles inintersections.Compared with Kalman filter prediction method,the proposed method shows that mean-absolute-percentage errors and accumulated root-mean-squared errors of predicted travel time decreased by 14.33% and 22.98%,respectively.

关 键 词：交通工程 旅行时间预测 TCPN 模糊推理 交叉口群 

分 类 号：U491.51[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]