2015/2016年强厄尔尼诺过程及其对全球和中国气候的主要影响  

The strong El Nio in 2015/2016 and its dominant impacts on global and China's climate

作　　者：翟盘茂[1] 余荣[2] 郭艳君[3] 李庆祥[4] 任雪娟[5] 王亚强[1] 徐文慧[4] 柳艳菊[3] 丁一汇[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [5]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《气象学报》2016年第3期309-321,共13页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2012CB417205);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575094)

摘　　要：根据全球气候系统和中国的最新观测资料,分析了2015/2016年ENSO循环过程,讨论了强厄尔尼诺过程对2015年全球温度和极端天气气候灾害的可能影响,重点研究了其对中国夏季和秋冬转换季节的降水异常的影响。指出自2015年春季开始,厄尔尼诺条件迅速发展,使得2015年厄尔尼诺成为有观测记录以来最强的三次厄尔尼诺之一,同时由于前期(2014年春季开始)赤道太平洋异常热状况的维持,这次厄尔尼诺也可以视为最长的厄尔尼诺过程。受到长期气候变化趋势和强厄尔尼诺等共同影响,2015年全球地表温度和中国陆面气温均创有观测以来的最高记录。强厄尔尼诺事件在2015年给全球许多地区带来了灾害性天气气候事件,也使得中国夏季华北地区,特别是河套地区、内蒙古中部和环渤海湾地区降水显著减少,并造成一些地区夏季严重干旱。在2015年11—12月厄尔尼诺峰值时期,受到西北太平洋对流层低层菲律宾反气旋性异常环流和中高纬度欧亚-太平洋遥相关型负位相异常环流的共同影响,中国东部出现偏南风异常,造成南方地区降水明显增多,而北方地区偏北风气流受到抑制,PM_(2.5)浓度异常偏高,雾霾天气频繁发生。目前,这一事件快速减弱,但其对全球和中国气候的影响在未来几个月仍将持续。The oceanic and atmospheric conditions and the related climate impacts of the 2015/2016 ENSO cycle were analyzed,based on the latest global climate observational data,especially that of China.The results show that this strong El Nio event fully established in spring 2015 and has been rapidly developing into one of the three strongest El Nio episodes in recorded history.Meanwhile,it is also expected to be the longest event recorded,attributable to the stable maintenance of the abnormally warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since spring 2014.Owing to the impacts of this strong event,along with climate warming background,the global surface temperature and the surface air temperature over Chinese mainland reached relcord highs in 2015.Disastrous weather in various places worldwide have occurred in association with this severe El Nio episode,and summer precipitation has reduced significantly in North China,especially over the bend of the Yellow River,central Inner Mongolia,and the coastal areas surrounding Bohai Bay.Serious drought has occurred in some of the above areas.The El Nio episode reached its peak strength during November-December 2015,when a lower-troposphere anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevailed over the Philippines,bringing about abnormal southerlies and substantially increased precipitation in southeastern China.At the same time,a negative phase of the Eurasia-Pacific teleconnection pattern dominated over the mid-high latitudes,which suppressed northerly winds in North China.These two factors together resulted in high concentrations of fine particulate matter（PM（2.5））and frequent haze weather in this region.Currently,this strong El Nio is weakening very rapidly,but its impact on climate will continue in the coming months in some regions,especially in China.

关 键 词：强厄尔尼诺 温度 灾害性天气气候 降水 PM2.5浓度 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]