石化装置BN拓扑结构节点态势分析模型与应用  

Node State Trend Analysis Model and Its Application of Petrochemical Device BN Topological Structure

作　　者：汤规成[1] 许开立[1] 李德顺[1,2,3] 刘家喜[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [2]沈阳鼓风机集团股份有限公司安技环保部,辽宁沈阳110425 [3]沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁沈阳110159

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第7期1017-1021,共5页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(2013020137);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目(L2012060)

摘　　要：针对石化装置运行过程中危险瞬息万变的特点,给出了一种将广义集对分析理论与BN集成的石化装置BN拓扑结构节点状态联系度表达形式,提出了石化装置BN拓扑结构节点态势计算模型,讨论了石化装置BN拓扑结构节点态势等级,并在同一态势中进行了进一步划分.应用表明:在构建的反应器火灾爆炸BN拓扑结构中,叶节点"反应器火灾爆炸"处于同势,以反应器火灾爆炸事件发生态势为主;同时,得到了其他中间节点状态联系度及其态势等级,且节点联系度中的差异性变化会对其节点态势及其等级产生一定的影响,甚至发生节点态势逆转现象,为分析石化装置BN拓扑结构节点状态及其态势提供了依据.For the changing risk of the petrochemical device, the node state trend expression formof the petrochemical device BN （ Bayesian network） topological structure is given based on generalset pair analysisCGSPA ） theory and BN , the node state trend calculation model of the petrochemicaldevice BN topological structure is proposed, the node state trend grade of the petrochemical deviceBN topological structure is discussed, and the node state trend grade is divided in the samesituation. Application results show that the leaf node “ the reaction fire explosion ” belongs to thesame situation, and the reactor fire explosion event occurrence is major in the BN topologicalstructure of the reactor fire explosion. The intermediate node connection degree and its state trendlevel are obtained, and the difference change of the connection degree will have some certain impacton the corresponding node situation and the node level, even the situation is reversed, and providesthe basis for the node state and its state situation analysis of BN topological structure.

关 键 词：广义集对分析 贝叶斯网络 联系度 叶节点 节点态势 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]