美国经济波动对中国丝绸出口贸易的影响  

Influence of the United States Econom ic Fluctuation on China's Silk Export Trade

作　　者：任祎卓[1] 顾国达[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,杭州310027

出　　处：《蚕业科学》2016年第3期525-531,共7页ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA

基　　金：农业部重大专项课题(No.101301*D20901)

摘　　要：在纵观近30年中国茧丝绸生产与贸易波动的基础上,利用1995—2014年中美两国的丝绸贸易面板数据,就中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易影响机制进行实证检验,得出以下结果:(1)在美国经济波动时期,中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易与其经济波动具有显著正效应,且二者之间呈正相关;(2)美国经济波动促进中国对其丝绸出口贸易的产品主要是绸缎和丝绸服饰类,反映出美国的丝绸消费档次在提升的同时,中国的丝绸产品生产技术水平与出口贸易产品品质亦在相应提高;(3)价格已不再是影响中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易增长的主要因素,单纯依靠价格已不能赢得国际市场优势。正确预测美国的经济波动趋势,有利于分散其经济波动风险对中国丝绸企业的冲击,促进中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易水平持续提升。Based on the view of China’s silk production and trade fluctuations during the last 30 years,the influencing mechanism of China’s silk export to the United States（ US） was analyzed according to silk trade panel data between US and China during 1995 to 2014. It is found that：（ 1） the US economic fluctuation has a significant effect on China’s silk export,which has a positive correlation;（ 2） The promoting effect of the US economy on China’s silk export is mainly reflected by satin and silk clothing,indicating that China’s silk production technology and export product quality are improving with the improvement of silk consumption quality in the US;（ 3） Price is no longer the main factor affecting the increment of China’s silk export to the US,so international market advantages cannot be obtained only through lowering prices. The results showed that correct prediction of US economic fluctuation will help to reduce the adverse impact of the US economic fluctuation on China’s silk enterprises and to improve China’s silk export to the US.

关 键 词：丝绸出口 影响因素 国内生产总值 面板数据 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济] F426.81F752.62