生产要素特征演变对出口波动的传导机制  

Transmission Mechanism of Production Factors Characteristics Evolution to Export Instability

作　　者：林思宇 黄繁华 薛业飞 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《经济经纬》2016年第4期56-61,共6页Economic Survey

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BJY079)

摘　　要：笔者以要素禀赋学说和出口波动一般均衡理论为基础,通过理论模型的推演发现:外需冲击、劳动要素价格与资本要素价格变动是影响出口波动的主要因素,在此基础上,运用36个国家24年的跨国面板数据考察劳动要素价格演变、资本要素价格演变对出口波动的影响。实证检验发现:对发展中国家而言,劳动和资本要素价格变动越大,出口波动越剧烈,其中劳动要素价格的影响最大;而对发达国家而言,劳动要素价格变动并不能对出口波动产生显著影响,资本要素价格变动则对出口波动产生正向影响,但影响不大,这表明与发展中国家相比,发达国家的出口波动已经基本脱离"要素驱动"时代。This paper based on the theory of factor endowments and export fluctuations equilibrium,builds the three stage model,and on this basis using 36 countries builds a 24 years multinational panel data,examines the labor factor price evolution,capital factor price evolution impact on export instability. It is found that in developing countries the larger price change of labor and capital elements the export fluctuations performance more instability,in which the role of labor factor price more than capital elements. For developed countries,labor price change cannot significant influence on export instability; capital price change has a positive impact on export instability,but the impact is not obvious. This result shows that compared with developing countries,the export instability in developed countries have been out of the ＂factor driven＂era.

关 键 词：出口波动 劳动要素价格变动 资本要素价格变动 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]