增值税横向分配失衡与地区经济发展——基于PVAR模型的实证分析  

VAT Lateral Allocation Imbalance and Regional Economic Development——Based on Empirical Analysis of PVAR Model

作　　者：崔治文[1] 白家瑛[1] 郭静[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2016年第4期63-69,共7页Reform of Economic System

摘　　要：本文基于我国2004—2013年31个省份增值税税收税源背离额和背离率的测度研究，结果显示：东部和西部多为增值税净转入地区，中部地区多为增值税净转出地区。发展趋势上，增值税的净转入地区和净转出地区的失衡程度逐年加深，且净转出地区失衡增长速度快于净转入地区失衡增长速度。PVAR模型对增值税背离与地区经济发展关系的实证分析表明，增值税税收税源的背离，对第三产业的发展和城乡居民人均可支配收入的增长有不利的影响，并提出了缓解增值税横向分配失衡政策建议。Measurement of 2004 -2013 Chinese 31 provinces VAT tax deviation amount and deviation rate are done. The statistical results show that most of the eastern and western regions are net VAT inflow areas, while most of the central region is a net VAT outflow area. On trends, Regional imbalances extent of VAT net inflow and net outflow areas are gradually deepened, and in the unbalanced growth rate, the net outflow region is faster than the net inflow region. PVAR model on the relationship of VAT deviation and area economic development of the empirical analysis show that VAT tax deviation have an adverse impact on the development of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents per capita disposable income growth, and proposes mitigation VAT lateral allocation imbalances policy recommendations.

关 键 词：增值税 分配失衡 统计分析 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F810.424[经济管理—财政学]