未来70年新农保收支预测与制度完善  

Forecast of Income and Expenses of New Style Rural Old-age Insurance in Future 70 Years and Its Institutional Improvement

作　　者：米红[1] 贾宁[1] 周伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310028

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第4期1-10,共10页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(12JZD035);国家社会科学基金重点项目(09AZD031;07ASH009);国家自然科学基金项目(71490732;71303212);国家社会科学重大项目(12&ZD099);浙江大学劳动保障与社会政策研究中心(LEPP)支持

摘　　要：新农保政策的可持续性和保障水平关系到广大农民的切身利益。基于城市化和老龄化的背景,运用PADIS-INT软件对2015-2085年间的城乡人口进行了预测,利用ELES模型和趋势外推等方法估算出了各年的乡村老人基本生活支出,并构建了考虑城乡人口迁移的新农保收支精算模型,系统地研究了当前状况下新农保的运行情况和趋势。研究发现,新农保基金应会在2051年耗尽,2085年新农保累计基金缺口达到578 556亿元,占当年财政支出的34.9%,而直到2055年,新农保提供的保险金才能满足农村老人的基本需求。运用政策仿真的方法,探索了各参数对新农保基金稳定性和保障水平的影响,发现只有同时提高养老金计发系数、个人账户计息率、基础养老金和投资收益率,才能在满足群众需求的同时,实现70年平衡。Sustainability and pension level of new style rural old-age insurance（NSROI）are of vital importance to the interests of rural residents.Based on the urbanization and aging,this paper predicted the rural and urban population from 2015—2085by PADIS-INT.It also applied ELES model and extrapolation to predict the basic living expenses per year of rural elderly people.Taking urban-rural migration into consideration,this study constructed actuary model to simulate the operation of the NSTOL fund system.The results showed that the NSROI fund will be exhausted in 2051 and the fund gap will reach 57.85 trillion yuan,accounting for 34.9% of the fiscal expenditure in 2085.While the pension provided by the NSROI could not meet the basic living expense of people until 2055.This study tested the influences of different factors on the sustainability and pension level of NSROI by policy simulation.Only by enhancing the divisor,individual account interest rate,basic pension and the investment yield at the same time,the NSROI fund could keep balance in 70 years as well as satisfy the basic need of the rural elderly people.

关 键 词：新农保 PADIS-INT ELES模型 养老金可持续性 保障水平预测 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]