2014年2月6～7日呼和浩特市降雪部分站点漏报分析  

Analysis on The Missing Report of Snowfall in Hohhot on February 6^(th)～7^(th),2014

作　　者：张志杰 张华 

机构地区：[1]呼和浩特市气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《内蒙古林业科技》2016年第2期37-41,共5页Journal of Inner Mongolia Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：呼和浩特市气象局科技创新项目"呼和浩特市近5年降水相态变化研究"资助

摘　　要：呼和浩特地区冬季降雪的预报是预报中的难题,尤其是多日没有有效降雪的预报。本文利用micaps常规观测资料,对呼和浩特地区2014年出现首场大范围降雪的情况下,部分站点漏报进行了分析,得出:本次降雪天气过程是槽前降雪天气过程,高空短波槽、低层风场切变和地面气旋是本次降雪的影响系统;强而持续的西南气流和深厚的湿层为降雪提供充沛的水汽;逆温层的建立对降雪预报有指示性作用。模式对湿层的预报存在偏差和根据地面实况简单外推是导致降雪漏报的重要原因;预报员保守的预报理念是导致降雪漏报的另一个原因。In Hohhot it is a difficult problem to forecast a snowfall in winter,especially to forecast non-effective snowfall for many days. By use of the micaps conventional observation data,the first snowfall in a large range in Hohhot in 2014 with missing report for part of stations has been analyzed. The results show that this snowfall weather process is in front of the trough snowfall weather process. And the upper short wave trough,the low-level wind shear and the ground cyclone are the influence system of this snowfall. The deep moisture layer and the strong southwest air flow have supplied abundant water vapor for this snowfall. The establishment of inversion layer has played an indicative role for snowfall forecast. The deviation existed in the moisture layer forecasting and the simple extrapolation according to the ground truth is the important reasons to cause the missing forecast of snowfall. And another reason for the missing forecast of snowfall is the forecaster＇s conservative concept for forecasting.

关 键 词：降雪 漏报 影响系统 湿层厚度 Tlogp 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]