风险来源与决策:背信规避现象及人际联结需求的作用  

Risk source matters much in decision-making: Betrayal aversion and the role of need for affiliation

作　　者：祝婧媛[1,2] 何贵兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学心理与行为科学系,杭州310028 [2]厦门大学心理咨询与教育中心,厦门361005

出　　处：《心理学报》2016年第6期733-745,共13页Acta Psychologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71271189);福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JA13019S)资助

摘　　要：经典的风险决策研究及相关理论模型关注人们如何对以不同概率出现的损益结果进行评价与选择,但很少区分和探究在相同概率和损益值下不同风险来源对决策的影响。事实上,决策情境中的风险既可能源自客观因素,也可能源自人为因素。与相同大小的客观风险相比,人们更规避人为风险,这种现象被称为"背信规避"。本研究采用信任博弈任务,通过最小可接受概率法和决策选择法两种方式探讨风险来源对决策冒险性的影响。结果发现:(1)中国被试存在"背信规避"现象,即对人为风险的规避程度高于客观风险;(2)当恐惧情绪被唤起时,被试对人为风险的规避程度降低,使得背信规避现象消失,甚至出现"反背信规避"倾向;(3)人际联结需求影响背信规避,人为风险下人际联结需求中介了恐惧情绪对决策冒险性的影响。上述结果有助于加深我们对风险来源影响决策的现象及其机制的理解。Risk source plays an important role in risky decision making. Unlike ＂lottery risk＂ that arises from a stochastic process, ＂person-based risk＂ is originated from others＇ decisions. Bohnet and Zeckhauser（2004） first studied the effect of risk source on risk preference using ＂trust game＂ task in which participants were asked to assign their ＂minimum acceptable probabilities（MAPs）＂ for securing the higher payoff, so as to make themselves just incline to the risky option from the sure one. It was found that the MAPs were generally higher when the occurrence of a certain outcome was determined by other person rather than a stochastic process. This phenomenon was named ＂betrayal aversion＂. Nevertheless, Fetchenhauer and Dunning（2012） obtained quite different findings： participants were significantly more willing to choose the risky option in trust game than in lottery game when they were informed that their chance of drawing a white ball or interacting with a trustworthy person was about 50%. These inconsistent findings hint the necessity of undermining the causes of ＂betrayal aversion＂. Hence the present study is to investigate how risk source and need for affiliation affect risky decision-making. In Study 1, participants face a binary-choice trust game with two options： a certain option in which both the participant and the anonymous partner would earn $10 for sure, and a risky one in which the participant may have a ＂good＂ outcome（with probability of 50%, participant and partner would earn $15 respectively） or a ＂bad＂ outcome（50% probability, participant earns$8 and the partner earns $22）. A between-subject design was used to explore the effects of risk sources. In ＂lottery risk＂ condition, whether the risky outcome would be（15, 15） or（8, 22） is depended on a lottery mechanism. In ＂person-based risk＂ condition, the outcome distribution depends on the partner＇s choice. Participants in Experiment 1 were asked to calibrate their MAPs which coul

关 键 词：风险来源 背信规避 恐惧情绪 人际联结需求 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C91[哲学宗教—心理学]