基于复合实物期权的燃煤电厂碳捕获与储存投资决策研究  

Study on CCS Investment Decision-Making Based on Compound Real Options for Coal-Fired Power Plant

作　　者：王喜平[1] 杜蕾[1] 赵树军[2] 李振伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济管理系,河北保定071003 [2]国网邯郸供电公司,河北邯郸056035

出　　处：《中国电力》2016年第7期179-184,共6页Electric Power

摘　　要：碳捕获与储存(CCS)作为国际社会应对气候挑战的重要选择具有多期性和不确定性。考虑CCS投资决策的阶段性特点,建立燃煤电厂CCS投资的两阶段复合实物期权决策框架。在分析CCS投资过程中示范和商业化运营2个阶段中期权选择的相互影响并考虑碳交易价格、燃料价格、投资成本等不确定因素的基础上,运用复合期权二叉树模型对考虑不确定性问题的项目投资价值进行了评估,并通过算例分析了该模型在CCS投资决策中的应用,得出了不同政策补贴条件下碳交易价格的投资临界值,为燃煤电厂CCS投资决策提供了理论依据。Carbon capture and storage（CCS） technology, as an ideal selection for the international community to address climate challenges, has the characteristics of multi-period and uncertainty. With consideration of the phased characteristics of CCS investment decision-making, a two-stage compound real options model is established for CCS investment of coal-fired power plant. Based on the option selection interaction in the phase of demonstration stage and commercial operation stage, and the uncertain factors of carbon prices, fossil fuel prices and investment cost, a two-stage compound real options model is established to evaluate the uncertainty problems in investment decision-making. Finally, a case study is conducted to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model to CCS investment decision-making, and the threshold of carbon trading price under different policy subsidies is obtained, which provides a theoretical basis for CCS investment decision-making for coal-fired power plants.

关 键 词：复合实物期权 燃煤电厂 碳捕获与储存(CCS) 投资决策 

分 类 号：TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]