人口生育水平对北京市教育需求的影响  

The Influence of Population Fertility Level on the Educational Needs of Beijing City

作　　者：赵勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市社会科学院<城市问题>编辑部,北京100101

出　　处：《现代教育科学》2016年第6期11-17,共7页Modern Education Science

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学规划项目"北京人口变动对教育需求的影响"(项目编号:13JYC018)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,北京市的人口出生率经历了一个"急上涨—长下降—缓反弹"的发展过程。通过定量分析发现,北京市的人口出生率与学前教育需求、义务教育需求呈正相关关系,而与高中教育需求呈负相关关系。表现在:新生人口缩减直接影响了学前教育和义务教育需求的萎缩,其中对学前教育的影响更为直接,而对义务教育需求的影响则是间接的,且具有滞后性;新生人口的缩减直接促进了高中教育需求的扩大,人们更倾向于以孩子的质量来弥补数量的减少,进而寻求高中教育需求的满足,以获得更多高等教育的机会。Since reforming and opening,the birth rate of Beijing has mainly undergone a process of＂rapid rising—long decreasing—slow rebounding＂. By quantity analysis,the birth rate of Beijing has positive relation to preschool education and compulsory education,but negative relation to senior middle-school education.That means that the decreasing of the birth rate in Beijing causes the decreasing of new born babies directly influencing the narrowing of the demanding for preschool education and compulsory education,and the influence is more direct,the demand of compulsory education is indirect,it has lag; the decreasing of the birth rate of Beijing will cause the decreasing of new born babies,directly boosting the enlarging of the demand for senior middle-school education,people tend to improve children’s quality to supplement the number decreasing,then satisfy their demand for senior middle-school education in order to get the chance to go to colleges.

关 键 词：人口出生率 学前教育 义务教育 高等教育 北京市 

分 类 号：G40[文化科学—教育学原理]