服务业就业能力提升与经济发展“阈值效应”的国际经验——基于世界43个主要发达国家和部分发展中国家的实证分析  

International Experiences of the Capacity of Service Sector to Absorb Labors and Economic Development " Threshold Effect" : An Empirical Analysis on 43 Major Developed Countries and Some Developing Economies

作　　者：刘玉荣[1] 查婷俊 陈东[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2016年第7期98-108,123,共12页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中国生产性服务业发展的战略转变和机制设计研究"(项目编号:15BJY023);国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国服务业二元结构及其对城市居民收入分配的影响研究"(项目编号:13CJL021);安徽省教育厅人文社会科学项目"安徽文化产业区域发展战略选择"(项目编号:SK2013B009)的资助

摘　　要：文章基于43个国家1980～2013年的面板数据，实证检验了经济发展与服务业吸收就业能力的关系，研究发现：（1）服务业吸收就业能力呈现显著的阶段性特征。在人均GDP小于4000美元（2005年不变价美元）的发展阶段，服务业就业占比随人均GDP增加呈加速度发展态势；跨越这一门槛后，服务业就业增长率急剧下降，服务业就业占比呈缓慢增长态势；在人均GDP超过15000美元后，服务业就业增长率回升至较高位置，占比呈稳步增长态势。（2）中国目前服务业就业占比与世界发达国家的临界点差距较大，服务业吸收就业能力仍将处于加速上升阶段，还存在着较大的就业提升空间。This paper confirms the relationship between economic development and the capacity of service sector to absorb labor through an empirical study based on the panel data from 1980 to 2013 of 43 major developed countries and some developing countries.The result shows that:( 1) With the rise of GDP per capita,the capacity of service sector to absorb labor differs among various development stages. When GDP per capita is less than $ 4,000( constant 2005 US $),the proportion of the employment in service industry increases rapidly with the growth of GDP per capita. Moreover,it grows at an accelerating rate. Above this threshold,the growth rate drops rapidly and the proportion of the employment in service industry will rise slowly over time. This process might not stop until GDP per capita reaches $ 15,000. Above the value,the growth rate reaches a higher level and the growth of proportion of the employment in service industry will keep steady.( 2) There is a substantial gap between China and the developed countries in terms of the proportion of employment in service industry. Therefore,with the rapid growth of GDP per capita in China,service industry will absorb more and more workers at an accelerating rate. In other words,there is still a large space to increase the country's total employment.

关 键 词：服务业就业能力 经济发展 阈值效应 国际经验 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] F249.1