风电场多状态出力的概率性评估  

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT FOR MULTI-STATE OUTPUT OF WIND FARM

作　　者：王森[1] 仉志华[1] 薛永端[1] 王国权[2] 刘华勇[2] 周平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)信控学院,青岛266580 [2]国网重庆市电力公司经济技术研究院,重庆401123

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2016年第6期1611-1616,共6页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展(863)计划(2012AA050213);国家自然科学基金(51177096);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(13CX02101A);国网重庆市电力公司科技项目(KJ[2013]94)

摘　　要：以风电场的出力作为研究对象,考虑风速的随机性和风电机组的随机投产、故障状态及降额状态等因素对风电场出力的影响,基于蒙特卡洛方法建立风电场多状态出力的概率模型,并给出评估流程。结合实际算例,在Matlab中编写程序对风电场的多状态出力进行概率性评估。算例分析表明,所建模型能对风电场的出力进行有效评估,比传统的三状态工作模型具有更好的适用性。Taking the output of wind farm as the research object, the effect of randomness of wind speed, random production of wind turbine, fault state and derating state on the output of wind farm were considered, the probability model of multi-state output of wind farm was set up based on the Monte-Carlo method. The evaluation process was also given. Combined with actual examples, the probabilistic assessment for multi-state output of wind farm was carried out by programming in Matlab. The example analyses show that the model can effectively assess the output of wind farm, which has better applicability than the traditional three-state model.

关 键 词：风电场 随机投产 蒙特卡洛方法 多状态出力 概率性评估 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]