中国城乡就业率的变化与决定因素——基于1988-2010年中国城镇收入调查数据的实证分析  

The Trend and Determinants of Employment Rate in Rural and Urban China:An Empirical Research Based on CHIP 1988- 2010

作　　者：严善平[1] 

机构地区：[1]日本同志社大学

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2016年第3期83-102,共20页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：日本学术振兴会(项目编号:23252008;15K03482)的资助

摘　　要：近年来,中国城乡劳动力市场的供求关系明显趋紧,人口增加减速、劳动年龄人口减少和就业率下降可能是产生这一现象的主要原因。本文利用中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)1988年至2010年的微观数据,定量描述城乡就业率的长期变化趋势,并从地区(省市)、家庭和个人三个层面对就业率、就业与否的决定机制进行计量分析。通过实证分析,我们得到了以下几点发现:就业率的快速下降主要起因于城镇居民,特别是城镇女性过早退出劳动力市场;中高等教育的迅速扩展推延了年轻人进入劳动力市场的年龄;城镇离退休人员比率的迅速上升和城镇人口的老龄化加快了就业率下降的趋势。中国经济还处于中等收入阶段,为了避免陷入中等收入陷阱,发掘潜在劳动力资源势在必行。为此,要加快改革退休制度,逐步提高法定退休年龄,特别是女性的退休年龄,实现男女退休年龄并轨;消除对女性的就业、晋升和待遇等方面的制度性歧视,提高女性的就业概率;继续大力发展教育,增加人力资本积累,以促进就业率水平的提高。In recent years, the relationship between supply and demand in the urban labor market is becoming significantly tighter. This change is mainly due to the following points： the growth rate of the total population falling, the population aged between 15 and 64 decreasing, and the employment rate declining. In this paper, we use CHIP data from 1988 to 2010 to quantitatively describe the trends of the employment rate in urban and rural China, and analyzes its determinants from regional, household and individual perspectives. Through an econometrical analysis, we have obtained the following main factual findings. Firstly, the decline of the employment rate in the period under study mainly resulted from changes in employment patterns of urban residents, especially women＇s retirement from the labor market. Secondly, the rapid development of education significantly delayed the age at which young people began to participate in the labor market. Thirdly, the rapid rise of the proportion of retired employees to the total population, that is, the aging of the urban population, accelerated the declining trend of employment. In order to maintain a normal economic growth rate, the Chinese government should make further reforms in the retirement system and family planning policy to reduce the negative impact of labor supply on economic development.

关 键 词：城乡就业率 CHIP调查 制度改革 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2