基于熵权物元可拓法的黑河中游水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Bearing Capacity Based on Entropy-weight and Matter-element Assessment Methods in Midstream of Heihe River

作　　者：谷红梅[1] 贾丽[1] 蒋晓辉[2] 徐建新[1] 董国涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,郑州450045 [2]黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年第6期87-92,共6页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(91325201);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201401031)

摘　　要：为了对黑河流域的水资源进行科学合理的利用,基于物元可拓评价方法,引入最大贴进度法作为改进的可拓方法,并采用熵值法确定其权重系数,对黑河中游地区的水资源承载力进行了计算分析和评价,然后就不同的治理方案进行了比较。结果表明,目前黑河中游的水资源开发已经具有一定的规模,属Ⅱ级水平,即承载力水平相对较低。对比各项治理方案,其评价特征值由现状年的2.451 7(Ⅱ级水平)调整至1.094 0(Ⅰ级水平)。影响黑河中游地区水资源承载能力的主要因素是农业用水量。因而,可采取提高黑河中游地区的农业用水水平并对其灌区面积加以限制、调整当地产业结构的方法,以提高其水资源承载能力。In order to utilize water resources of Heihe River scientifically,on the basis of Matter-element assessment method,taking the greatest close-degree method as strengthen ways,Entropy assessment method was adopted to confirm its weight coefficient so as to analyze and evaluate the water resources bearing capacity in the midstream of Heihe River,and comparisons of different managements plans were carried out.The results indicated that the development of water resources in the midstream of Heihe River actually had certain amount of scale,classified to second grade level,which showed that the water bearing capacity was relatively low.Compared to all management plans,assessment factor value ranged from current year＇s second grade level（2.451 7）to first grade level（1.094 0）.The main factor affected water resources bearing capacity was agricultural irrigation.Therefore,the best solution is that the water resources bearing capacity should be improved by raising the level of the utilization of agricultural or restricting the irrigation areas and readjust local industrial structure,in order to increase the water resources bearing capacity of the region eventually.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 物元模型 可拓工程 熵权 黑河中游 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]