基于Copula函数的川中丘陵区干旱风险分析  

Drought Risk Analysis in the Hilly Region of Central Sichuan Based on Copula Function

作　　者：景楠[1] 梁川[1] 龙贻东 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院水力学及山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年第6期98-102,共5页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家"973"计划项目(2013CB036401);国家自然科学基金项目(51009101)

摘　　要：根据川中丘陵区内8个代表性站点1958—2014年月降水资料计算标准降水指数(SPI),通过游程理论识别不同类型的干旱事件,引入Copula函数计算不同类型干旱事件的联合概率以分析川中丘陵区内的干旱风险。结果表明,川中丘陵区内发生季内轻旱、跨季轻旱、跨季中旱、跨季极旱,尤其是半年以上极旱事件的风险较高;区内不同类型干旱事件的分布特征不同,内江和宜宾站所在区域是季内重旱和季内极旱的高风险区,而巴中和阆中站所在区域是半年以上干旱事件的高风险区。In order to analyze the risk of drought in the hilly region of central Sichuan,the standard precipitation index（SPI）was used to describe drought based on monthly precipitation data from eight sites in the area during 1958—2014and the theory of run and the Copula function were applied to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of different types drought events in the region.The results indicated that the main drought types in the region were intraseasonal light drought,light drought within inter-seasons,moderate drought within inter-seasons,extreme drought within inter-seasons,and extreme drought over half a year.As for the spatial distribution of different types drought events in the region,possibility of severe drought within inter-seasons and extreme drought within inter-seasons were higher near Neijiang and Yibin station,and the possibility of extreme drought over half a year was higher near Bazhong and Langzhong station.

关 键 词：川中丘陵区 干旱 游程理论 COPULA函数 空间分布 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]