基于灰云模型的海上交通系统风险推理方法  

Reasoning Method for Risk in Marine Traffic System Based on Gray Cloud Model

作　　者：龚慧佳[1] 轩少永[1] 胡甚平[1] YANG Zaili 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]英国利物浦约翰摩尔斯大学

出　　处：《中国航海》2016年第2期87-91,共5页Navigation of China

摘　　要：引入灰云理论的映射方法定量推理海上交通系统风险。首先,提出风险事件成因发生的可能性及其影响程度,定量推理海上交通系统风险;其次,构建灰云模型应用流程,推理海上交通风险成因的作用效果;再次,借助云模型的代数运算和升云计算,得出海上交通系统风险;最后,结合我国某港口水域的船舶交通风险数据,推理船员、船舶和环境等3个因素作用下的海上交通系统风险。运用基于系统因素相互作用的风险二维云推理,得出港口水域船舶交通风险水平为0.3‰,且不稳定。算例应用结果表明:借助灰云模型有助于不确定描述与定常信息的量化转换,实现多因素作用下的海上交通安全风险推理。The gray cloud model to reasoning the risks of maritime traffic system is introduced,First,proposing the possibility and influences of risks and analyzing randomness,quantitatively reasoning the risks of maritime traffic system;Second,based on the cloud model algebra calculation and cloud fusion calculation to obtain the risks of maritime traffic system;Third,combining the traffic risk data information of China＇ s coastal ports,analyzes the impacts of the crew,vessels and circumstances on marine traffic risks.Based on two dimensions of risk cloud reasoning,calculated the traffic risk level in the port waters was 0.3‰,and unstable.The illustrative examples show that,with the aid of gray cloud model,it can help the conversion between the random and incomplete information and to realize the marine traffic safety risks reasoning with multi factors.

关 键 词：水路运输 水上交通安全 系统仿真 风险评估 云推理 灰云模型 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]