油价变动对船舶租金的影响  

Impact of Bunker Price on Time Charter Rates

作　　者：李新伟[1] 余思勤[2] 陈金海[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学上海高级国际航运学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国航海》2016年第2期115-119,共5页Navigation of China

基　　金：教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20113121110003)

摘　　要：为研究燃油价格变动对航运市场的影响,建立船舶最优航速决策和航速与船舶租金联合优化模型。在均衡市场中,船舶经济航速和盈利航速是统一的。燃油价格变化影响船舶航速,导致船舶运力供给和租金发生变化。实证研究发现:油价下跌导致船舶最优航速提高,促使船舶均衡租金下降;运力供给价格的弹性越小,最优航速变化的幅度越小,而船舶租金变动的幅度越大。低油价、低租金的市场状态是提高燃油品质的好时机,提高燃油价格有利于增加船舶所有人的盈利、减少船舶污染物的排放。The sailing speed optimization model and time charter rate-speed joint optimization model are established to investigate the impact of bunker price on time charter rates.The economical speed and profitable speed are equivalent in equilibrium market.The optimal speed,depending on bunker price,influences the supply of fleet capacity and time charter rates.Empirical analysis shows that falling oil prices leads to increasing optimal speed and dropping time charter rates.The smaller the price elasticity of supply capacity,the fewer the optimal speed changes and the greater the time charter rate fluctuates.It is a good time to improve bunker quality and raise its prices in the situation of low oil prices and low time charter rates,as it will increase ship owners＇ earning and reduce shipping emissions.

关 键 词：交通运输经济学 经济航速 盈利航速 租船价格 燃油价格 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22