基于气候适宜度的陕西烤烟单产预报  

Flue-cured Tobacco Yield Prediction in Shaanxi Using Climatic Suitability

作　　者：杨艳超 靳宁[2] 朱海涛 李晓廉 何登峰 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象服务中心,西安710014 [2]山西省气候中心,太原030002 [3]镇江市气象局,江苏镇江212000 [4]陕西省烟草公司,西安710016

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第20期120-125,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：陕西省气象局科技创新基金计划项目"陕西省烟草产量与气象要素关系分析及应用"(2012M-7)

摘　　要：为预报陕西省烤烟单产,对陕西省烤烟种植气候特征进行分析,建立基于代表县综合气候适宜度的陕西省烤烟单产预报模型。研究利用1995—2014年陕西省13个代表县的烤烟产量数据及气象资料,选取成熟期平均气温、旺长期降水、大田生长期可用时间、大田期日照时数作为影响因子,计算其基于隶属函数的综合气候适宜度指数,分析陕西省烤烟气候适宜度分布特征,运用多元线性回归方法建立基于代表县综合气候适宜度的陕西省烤烟单产预报模型。结果表明,烤烟单产预测值与实际单产值拟合率较高,平均相对误差为3.74%。2014年陕西省烤烟单产预报结果准确率为92%,相对误差为7.96%。该模型具有较高的准确性和实用性,可作为烤烟产量预报的有效工具。In order to predict the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Shaanxi Province, the spatial distribution of theclimatic characteristics for flue- cured tobacco planting were analyzed. The yield prediction model wasestablished using multi- linear regression method based on the comprehensive climatic suitability index ofrepresentative counties. Several meteorological factors were considered, including the average temperatureduring maturity stage, precipitation in vigorous growing period, available time and sunshine duration during thegrowth period. The datasets of tobacco yield and meteorological data of the 13 representative counties wherethe tobacco planted continuously were used in this study. Results showed that the predicted and observed yieldagreed well, with an average relative error of 3.74%. The accuracy of the yield prediction for 2014 was 92%,with a relative error of 7.96%. The prediction model was of high accuracy and practicability, and could be usedas an effective tool to predict the tobacco yield production.

关 键 词：气候适宜度 陕西 烤烟 单产预报 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业]