基于马尔可夫模型的东北三省产业结构预测  

Industrial Structure Prediction of the Three Provinces in Northeast China Based on Markov Model

作　　者：朱会霞[1] 刘文昌[1] 张彩虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工业大学管理学院,辽宁锦州121001

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第21期194-198,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目"建立健全辽宁生态补偿机制问题研究"(L13DJY092);辽宁省教育厅项目"辽宁省物联网产业商业模式研究"(W2015210);辽宁工业大学校基金项目"区间自适应遗传算法的研究"(X2013023)

摘　　要：为了合理规划东北三省产业结构,提升东北三省区域经济产业的整体竞争力,笔者应用马尔可夫预测方法对东北三省产业结构进行了研究,并用区间自适应遗传算法求解马尔可夫状态转移概率矩阵,依据2004—2014年产业结构的统计数据,预测了东北三省第一、二、三产业结构,平均误差为2.92%,具有较高的预测精度。用该模型对2015—2016年东北三省产业结构进行了预测,为东北三省制定相应的地方产业结构政策提供一定的理论依据。In order to make an appropriate plan of the industrial structure for the three provinces in northeast China and increase the overall competitiveness of the regional economic industry, the industrial structures inHeilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning Province were studied by using Markov model. And the interval adaptivegenetic algorithm was employed to solve the Markov state transition probability matrix. Based on the statisticaldata of industrial structure from 2004 to 2014, the structures of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry inthe three provinces were predicted. The average error was 2.92%, indicating that this model had relative highaccuracy. The industrial structure in the three provinces in 2015 and 2016 were predicted using this model,and the results provided a the oretical basis for policy-making on adjusting local industrial structure.

关 键 词：产业结构 马尔可夫模型 转移概率矩阵 区间自适应遗传算法 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]