西安市降水量的时序特性分析  

Analysis on the sequencial characteristics of precipitation in Xi＇an

作　　者：乔亮[1,2] 钱会[1,2] 高盼盼[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710054 [2]旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,西安710054

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2015年第B02期63-65,96,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201301084）

摘　　要：利用西安市1951年-2008年（2006年缺测）的月降水量观测资料，采用线性拟合、云模型及Mann-Kendall突变检验3种方法，分析了该地区降水量在丰水期、枯水期及全年三个不同时间尺度的时序特性。通过线性趋势拟合分析可知，西安市近57年来降水量总体呈减少趋势，其减少速率为13．613mm／10al用云模型研究降水量分布的不确定性，结果表明其分布的不均匀性为全年〉丰水期〉枯水期，不均匀性的稳定程度则与之相反；用Mann-Kendall法分析降水量的突变情况，发现各时期的变化大都未达到显著性水平，只有丰水期和全年极少时域内存在明显突变。Wet season,dry season and annual precipitation records, from 1951 to 2008 （lack measurement of 2006） in Xi＇an are analyzed by the linear fitting, cloud model and Mann-Kendall abrupt change test. The linear fitting method is used to analyze the trend changes. Decreasing tend- ency of precipitation is known in last 57 years with 13. 613 mm per ten years. The cloud model is used to research the uncertainty of precipitation distribution, the results show that the annual ~ wet season ~ dry season in non-uniformity of distribution,while its stability is on the contrary. The Mann-Kendall is used to test the abrupt changes of precipitation, finding that precipitation abrupt changes among these periods do not reach significant level, but only in rarer time of wet season and annual exist obvious changes.

关 键 词：降水量 线性拟合 云模型 MANN-KENDALL检验 西安市 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]