基于下偏度的作战风险控制兵力组合优化模型研究  

Study on Combat Risk of the Forces Combined Control Optimal Model by the Downside Skewness

作　　者：宋留勇[1] 刘靖旭[1] 张慧萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《信息工程大学学报》2016年第3期334-339,374,共7页Journal of Information Engineering University

基　　金：科研基金资助项目

摘　　要：为降低作战中因作战体系兵力配置不当引发重大损失的概率,依据历史兵力单元作战训练数据,以下偏度衡量作战要素组合中的可能风险,建立了以下偏度最小化为目标函数的优化模型。模型体现了预期作战效能产生波动风险的本质,以历史作战效能关联系数反映联合作战中多个作战单元、作战要素间的相互关系,提高模型的实用性和解析能力;最后用VaR控制兵力组合的预期作战风险,计算偏度控制兵力组合可能发生重大损失的概率,实现了体系对抗中对兵力组合风险的双重控制,并实例验证了模型的可行性和实用性。In order to reduce the big loss probability in operation due to improper force disposition of the combat system, and measure the possible risk of the combat element by downside skewness based on historical combat or train data of the combat unit, the paper builds an optimal model which uses the minimum downside skewness as the objective function. The model reflects the nature of the fluctuant risk of the expected combat efficiency. Besides, by advancing a joint operation efficiency correlation coefficient supported by the history data, the practical utility and calculability of the mod- el are enhanced. Finally, VaR is used to control the whole risk of the forces, reducing the risk of the force loss by the downside skewness. Double risk control is realized in the confrontation. The model＇s feasibility and practicability are verified by practical examples.

关 键 词：作战体系 优化配置 下偏度 兵力组合优化 

分 类 号：O236[理学—运筹学与控制论]