不同客运交通方式对新疆区域经济增长的影响差异  

The Different Impact of Passenger Traffic Ways on the Different Economic Growth in Xinjiang Region

作　　者：张璐[1,2] 张小雷[2] 杜宏茹[2] 倪天麒[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《重庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第4期211-216,共6页Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science

摘　　要：分析了新疆不同的客运方式对新疆经济的影响。选取1995—2013年相关统计数据,基于协整理论和Granger因果检验方法,并引入变形后的Cobb-Douglas生产函数建立回归模型,采用主成分回归法修正最小二乘回归模型。三种客运方式与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,三种客运方式对经济增长的贡献率大小依次为公路客运、铁路客运、航空客运。受新疆不同发展时期基础设施建设重点的影响,公路客运对经济增长的贡献是时间序列上呈持续快速增长的趋势,铁路客运对经济增长的贡献率呈缓慢增长,航空客运对经济增长的贡献率在近些年有所增长,但增长缓慢。This paper analyzed different passenger traffic ways＇ impact on the different economic growth in Xinjiang region. By using the related statistical data from 1995 to 2013, based on the method of co-integration theory and Granger causality test, and intro- duces the deformation after the Cobb-Douglas production function to establish regression model. At last, the author using the princi- pal component regression method to modified least-squares regression model. There is a tong-term equilibrium relationship between economic growths three passenger transport ways. And the contribution rate three passenger ways to economic growth from high to low is highway transportation, railway transportation, aviation transportation. Under the influence of different infrastructure con- struction in different development period Xinjiang, the highway transportation＇s contribution to the economic growth is on a trend of sustained and rapid growth in time series. And the railway transportation has a slow growth for the contribution rate of economic growth. The aviation transportation＇s contribution rate to economic growth is slowest.

关 键 词：客运方式 经济增长 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 回归分析 

分 类 号：F572[经济管理—产业经济]