北京市水资源稀缺因素的灰色关联分析  

Study on water resources scarcity in Beijing

作　　者：张咪[1] 吴礼斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《宁德师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期174-177,186,共5页Journal of Ningde Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学研究项目(KJ2013Z001);安徽财经大学科研基金资助项目(ACKY1402ZD)

摘　　要：针对北京市水资源稀缺问题,首先,使用灰色关联分析法,解释北京市水资源短缺的原因,并通过关联度排名分析各因素的影响程度.其次,通过分析水资源稀缺的原因,得出社会和环境通过特定的驱动程序,导致水资源的物理性稀缺和经济性稀缺.然后,根据影响因素的重要性建立短缺风险程度函数,从而定量分析水资源短缺程度.最后,针对两类稀缺提出具体的措施.This paper mainly focus on water resources scarcity in Beijing. Firstly, using the method of grey correlation, we explain the reason for the water scarcity in Beijing. Secondly, we analyze the causes of water scarcity through the rank correlation analysis of the influence degree. It is concluded that there will be social and environmental drivers, which lead to physical scarcity and economic scarcity of water resources respectively. Thirdly, according to the importance of the influencing factors,we establish the water resource shortage risk degree function in order to go on a quantitative analysis.Finally, we put forward specific measures in view of the two types of scarcity, so as to ease Beijing＇s water resources scarcity.

关 键 词：北京市水资源 灰色关联分析 物理性稀缺 经济性稀缺 短缺风险程度 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]