全球货币体系第三次寻锚  

The Third-Round Efforts to Search for Anchor of the International Monetary System

作　　者：黄海洲 

机构地区：[1]中国国际金融股份有限公司

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2016年第4期9-33,共25页International Economic Review

摘　　要：全球经济和金融系统目前面临严重的、持续的低增长和低通胀。自2008年爆发全球金融危机八年多来,尽管许多国家在货币政策、财政政策等方面尽了巨大努力,有些国家甚至把货币政策用到极限,但全球经济仍然复苏乏力,一些货币大幅度贬值,不少国家面临巨大通缩压力。在全球金融层面,这次通缩的根本原因是基于1985年《广场协议》和之前美联储主席沃尔克强力去通胀所形成的全球货币之锚(或布雷顿森林体系2.0版)难以为继。全球货币需要寻找新的锚。以史为鉴,研究1929年开始的全球货币体系第一次寻锚和1971年开始的第二次寻锚对于分析自2008年开始的全球货币调整有着重要的参考意义。全球货币体系大约每四十年经历一次寻锚小周期,每八十年经历一次寻锚大周期。经过共同努力,全球货币可能迈向布雷顿森林体系3.0版,全球合作共赢。否则,市场担心全球经济或面临重回大萧条的巨大风险。全球货币体系的新锚必须要有新兴市场国家的货币参与领导。同时,要从单一的货币通胀目标制,过渡到包括稳定增长和维护金融系统稳定性的多目标管理体系。中国在此轮全球货币体系调整中可以有所作为。特别提款权(SDR)将人民币纳入具有非常重要的意义,为开启全球货币第三次寻锚奠定了重要的基础。Seven years after the 2008 global financial crisis, the global economic recovery remainssluggish and many countries face deflationary and devaluation pressure, despite theirrelentless efforts in using monetary and fiscal policies to bolster growth and stabilize thefinancial markets. From the global financial perspective, our analysis shows, the fundamentalcause of the current deflation is the failure of the international monetary anchor, found in the1980 s, which resulted in the Plaza Accord and the US Federal Reserve's strong and effectivepolicy actions in dealing with inflation, to continue to work. The international monetary system,therefore, needs to find a new anchor.After the gold standard was established, the international monetary system had gone throughtwo cycles of anchor-searching. The first cycle is between 1929 and 1971, when the anchorwas the gold-pegging US dollar operating in the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rateand capital controls; the second cycle is between 1971 and 2008, when the anchor was thedominant US dollar and other supporting G5 currencies operating in the new Bretton Woodssystem whereby the dollar is no longer pegged to gold, free capital flows and free floatingexchange rates are allowed and inflation targets are set to manage monetary policy. While a fullsuch cycle lasted for around 40 years, it took 16 years to search for a new anchor in each cycle.In the world is searching for a new anchor this time, coordinated global efforts from bothadvanced and emerging economies are needed. The forthcoming inclusion of the RMB into theIMF SDR basket provides a useful foundation for emerging countries to participate in thethird-round search for anchor. China and the US, representing emerging and advancedeconomies, respectively, are best positioned to lead and coordinate the global efforts foranchor-searching.

关 键 词：全球货币体系 货币锚 全球治理 货币政策目标 金融史 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]