信江流域生态健康预测分析  

Prediction and analysis on ecological health of Xinjiang Basin

作　　者：徐昕[1,2] 陈青生[1] 董壮[1] 贾东远[1] 李成[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]湖北省水利水电规划勘测设计院,湖北武汉430064 [3]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2016年第4期154-159,共6页Water Resources Protection

摘　　要：将压力-状态-响应(pressure-state-response,PSR)模型、网络层次分析法(analytic network process,ANP)和元胞自动机—马尔科夫模型(cellular automaton-Markov,CA-Markov)模型3种方法进行耦合,建立流域生态健康预测模型。基于1990、2000、2010和2020年的资料,选用物元分析法、TOPSIS法以及模糊综合评价法对信江流域生态健康进行分析。结果显示:1990—2000年,信江流域生态健康状态为I等,处于"很健康"水平;2001—2010年,信江流域的生态健康状况持续恶化,达到V等,处于"病态"水平;但预测结果显示在21世纪20年代,信江流域健康得到改善并上升至Ⅲ等,达到"亚健康"水平,虽有所好转,但是仍需重视健康管理和维护。A model for prediction of a basin ’ s ecological health was established through the coupling of three methods, including the pressure-state-response （ PSR） model, the analytic network process （ ANP） model, and the cellular automaton-Markov （CA-Markov） model. Based on data from the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the matter element analysis method, the TOPSIS method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to analyze the ecological health of the Xinjiang Basin. The results show that, from 1990 to 2000, the ecological health status of the Xinjiang Basin was at the grade I level, which was a very healthy status, and from 2001 to 2010, the basin’ s ecological health status continuously deteriorated, reaching the grade V level, which was an unhealthy status. The prediction results show that, in the 2020s, the ecological health status of the Xinjiang Basin will improve, reaching the grade III level, which is a sub-healthy status. Although the status will have improved, it is necessary to pay a high degree of attention to the management and maintenance of the basin’ s ecological health.

关 键 词：压力-状态-响应模型 网络层次分析法 元胞自动机-马尔科夫模型 物元分析法 信江流域 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]