基于BOT模式的养老社区项目特许期决策  

BOT-based Decision-making of Concession Period for Pension Community Projects

作　　者：郑生钦[1] 司红运 贺庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学管理工程学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2016年第4期29-34,40,共7页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

摘　　要：作为符合我国现实国情而又存在巨大市场需求的新型产业,养老社区的发展面临诸多难题。采用BOT模式建设养老社区项目,既可以解决土地难题,缓解资金压力,同时又能够促进养老服务业的发展,然而不合理的特许期设定将会导致政府补贴负担过重或者投资者无法达到预期的收益水平,进而导致项目失败。基于此,文章拟从政府的视角,分析养老社区BOT项目运作流程及特许期决策的影响因素,基于利益相关者风险分担的原则构建特许期决策数理模型。结合济南市日月潭养老社区项目的案例数据,运用水晶球软件(Crystal Ball)和蒙特卡罗模拟方法对所构建模型进行模拟验证,结果表明:运用该模型测算特许期,结果客观合理,可操作性强,能够为养老社区BOT项目特许期的确定提供决策参考。As the new industry, which suits to our country＇ s practical circumstances and exist enormous demand, the development of the pension community faces many problems. BOT mode to build retirement community projects can solve the land problem, alleviate the pressure of the money, and also can promote the development of pension services, yet unreasonable concession period setting will lead to government subsidy burden or investors cannot reach the expected benefit levels, which may lead to project failure. Based on this, from the perspective of government , this article analyzes old-age community BOT project operation process and the influence factors of decision in concession period and constructs the model of concession period mathematical based on the principle of stakeholder sharing danger. A pension community combining Jinan＇ s BOT project case data uses the Crystal Ball software and Monte Carlo simulation method builds the model verification. The results show that measuring the concession period, using the model result is objective, the maneuverability is strong, and is able to provide for the aged community provide decision-making reference to determine the concession period of BOT.

关 键 词：养老社区 BOT 特许期 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]