中国是否抢占了其他发展中国家的出口机会?——来自制造业的证据  

Does China Seize Other Developing Countries' Exporting Opportunity?Evidence from Manufacture Industry

作　　者：刘瑶[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学国际经济贸易学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2016年第4期132-140,156,共10页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"全球价值链重构对新兴经济体工资收入的影响"(71303036)

摘　　要：自1978年改革开放以来,中国经济逐步融入全球市场,中国是否因＂贸易竞争效应＂挤出了其他发展中国家的贸易机会,还是通过＂全球价值链效应＂促进了其他发展中国家的贸易机会呢？本文基于2000~2014年10个发展中国家在HS两分位水平上对世界各国的出口数据,考察各国出口供给能力的变化。研究发现：中国与其他发展中国家制造业出口供给能力同步提高,相关性强;各国受到美国金融危机的影响出口供给能力有所下降,但中国出口供给能力的波动较小;反事实研究显示,在中国出口供给能力保持在2000年不变的情况下,其他发展中国家资本密集型产业出口平均下降1%,劳动密集型产业出口平均下降0.7%,但技术密集型产业出口增加0.02%,这表明中国的出口导向型发展战略对其他发展中国家制造业出口的负面影响微乎其微。China has joined the global market since the reform in 1978.Does China seize other developing countries' exporting opportunity by trade competition?This paper investigates the change of10 developing countries' export supply ability based on HS 2-digit export data from 2000 to 2014.The results are as follows:Firstly,the export supply abilities of 10 developing countries are increasing synchronizationally with China and highly correlated to China.Secondly,all countries suffered from financial crisis which result in a sharper fluctuation in export supply abilities,relative to China.Thirdly,the counterfactual study shows that,on average,exporting supply ability of other developing countries' capital-intensive industry would decline 1% while that of labor-intensive industry would decline 0.7%and that of technology-intensive industry would increase 0.002%,if China holds its export supply ability to the level in 2000.In conclusion,China's export-led strategy has a minimal impact on other manufacturing industries exports.

关 键 词：贸易竞争效应 制造业出口 出口导向型发展战略 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]