农牧交错带县域农牧系统对气候波动的响应机制  

Response mechanisms of a county territory agro-pastoral system to climate fluctuations in an agro-pastoral transitional zone

作　　者：宋乃平[1] 王兴[1] 杨新国[1] 吴旭东[1] 陈林[1] 米楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学,西北土地退化与生态恢复国家重点实验室培育基地,西北退化生态系统恢复与重建教育部重点实验室,银川750021

出　　处：《生态学报》2016年第13期3969-3977,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(973)前期专项项目(2012CB723206);国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAC07B03);宁夏大学211建设项目

摘　　要：农牧系统过程对气候波动的响应机制既是建立农牧耦合系统的主要科学问题又是农牧交错带可持续发展的关键问题之一。以盐池县1954—2013年气候和农牧系统过程为例,运用变异系数、逐步回归方法和经验模态分解法,分析了气候、农业、牧业系统12个指标的波动周期、振幅和方差贡献率,据此研究了它们之间的波动关系。结果表明:1)农牧系统受气候影响具有较大波动性。波动由强到弱依次为气候、农业、牧业,呈逐级传递的特性。三者的高频波动分量的方差贡献率依次减小,而中低频波动分量的方差依次增大。2)近60年农牧系统过程主要受经济系统驱动发生趋势性变化,同时受气候的驱动发生波动。农业在突变前受气候影响较大而突变后明显减小;同样牧业在突变前受农业影响大,突变后也明显减小。经济对农牧系统过程的影响逐渐增强。它在提高和稳定粮食总产量同时导致家畜数量特别是羊只总数的剧增,使得牧业波动加剧。3)农牧系统的波动差异、相互关联以及对气候的响应的分析表明,农牧耦合系统具有减少内部要素波动性的功能。因此,依据生态和经济规律设计具有健全正负反馈机制的农牧耦合系统是实现农牧交错带农牧业可持续发展的重要途径。The response mechanism of an agro-pastoral system to climate fluctuations is one of the major scientific challenges associated with lhe establishment of an agro-pastoral coupling system, as well as being a key problem related to the sustainability of an agro-pastoral transitional zone. By using stepwise regression analysis （SRA） and empirical mode decomposition method, we evaluated the dynamics of climate fluctuation and the corresponding changes in the agro-pastoral system of Yanchi County between 1954 and 2013. The range, amplitude, and variance contribution rate were analyzed for 12 indicators in the climate system, agricultural system, and animal husbandry system. Furthermore, we explored the relationships among fluctuations in climate, agriculture, and animal husbandry. The results demonstrated the presence of clear fluctuations in the agro-pastoral system, which corresponded of fluctuations ranging from strong to weak comprised the climate, of variance contributed by high-amplitude intrinsic mode functions to climate fluctuations in the past 60 years. The sequence agriculture, and animal husbandry systems. The amount （IMFs） was the highest for climate indicators, followed by agricultural indicators and animal husbandry indicators. However, the amounts of variance contributed by medial- and low-amplitude IMFs exhibited the opposite trend, increasing from climate indicators to agricultural indicators and then animal husbandry indicatols. The SRA showed that the main factors contributing to the fluctuations were annual precipitation, followed by the total grain output and total number of sheep. Thus, the amplitude of the system was higher when it was more controlled by nature. Furthermore, the agriculture and animal husbandry systems generally exhibited changes due to the combined effects of economic factors and climate fluctuation during the past 60 years. Agriculture was affected the most strongly by climate before 1999 when an abrupt change occurred, but subsequently, the effects were weak. Simila

关 键 词：农牧系统 气候波动 响应机制 农牧交错带 盐池县 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]