生态学视角下的城市生命周期及其演替——以北京市为例  

urban life-cycle and its evolution from the perspective of ecology:taking Beijing City for example

作　　者：翟炜[1] 顾朝林[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建筑学院城市规划系

出　　处：《城市问题》2016年第7期30-37,共8页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590840)--特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境耦合机理及胁迫效应动力学模型及胁迫效应研究

摘　　要：基于生态演替的生态学原理和Lotka-Volterra模型,提出了四种城市生命周期模型:波动演替型、演替生长型、演替衰退型和快速生长型。以北京为例,运用1978-2014年的数据进行了实证研究。结果显示,北京城市生命演替总体呈上升趋势,且其演替周期为4-9年;北京城市生命最近的演替周期从2012年开始,且处在快速发展类型,需要进行技术、经济、规划、建设和政策等调控,以促进北京城市走向可持续发展。Based on the ecological principle of ecological succession and Lotka- Voherra model, this essay constructsfour urban life -cycle models： succession fluctuation model, succession growth model, succession recession model and rapidgrowth model. The essay takes Beijing as a case study with its data collected from 1978 to 2014. It finds out that Beijing＇ s succession process reveals an upward trend and the succession cycle of Beijing is four to nine years. Beijing＇ s latest succession cycle starts from 2012 and it is still on a rising stage. In order to avoid the city turning towards a cyclical recession, adjustments and controls on technology, economy, planning, construction and policy are reauired.

关 键 词：城市生命周期 生态演替 北京 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]