WRF模式制备的气象驱动数据在新疆喀依尔特斯河流域的验证  

Validation of WRF model on simulating forcing data for Kayiertesi River basin,Xinjiang

作　　者：吴雪娇[1] 潘小多[1] 沈永平[2] 张伟[1] 贺建桥[1] 贺斌 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [3]新疆阿勒泰水文水资源勘测局,新疆阿勒泰836500

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2016年第2期332-340,共9页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271083;41471292;41201062);冻土工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLFSE201412);中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所"丝绸之路经济带的水资源综合利用与生态建设"项目(HHS-135-16-T2)资助

摘　　要：随着寒区水文模拟研究的深入,空间分布式模型的快速发展,迫切需求高分辨率的气象驱动数据.研究基于WRF模式动力降尺度和Micromet统计降尺度方法,制备了阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区喀依尔特斯河流域春季1 km分辨率气象驱动数据,并利用地面观测资料从小时尺度上对其进行了验证,为该流域春季分布式融雪径流模型做充分准备.结果表明:小时尺度上2 m气温、2 m相对湿度、10 m风速、地表接收的短波辐射和长波辐射的平均绝对误差MBE分别为0.43℃、-2.9%、3.7 m·s^(-1)、28.2 W·m^(-2)和-36.2 W·m^(-2),其平均均方根误差RMSE分别为3.81℃、18.2%、4.8 m·s^(-1)、163.5W·m^(-2)和52 W·m^(-2),与实测对比拟合的R^2分别为0.84、0.32、0.03、0.7和0.3.在小时尺度上,2 m温度和地表接收短波辐射的模拟结果比较理想,可以用于高时间分辨率水文模拟.With the improvement of hydrological simulation studies and the rapid development of distributed model, the need for high resolution meteorological forcing data were urgent. Based on the WRF model, this study simulated meteorological forcing data with lkm resolution in spring for the Kayiertesi River basin in the headwater of Irtysh River, Altai Mountains, Xinjiang, China. The results were validated by hourly meteorologi- cal observation data in AWS to prepare for spring distributed snowmelt runoff model. The following conclusions were obtained： The average MEB （Mean Bias Error） of hourly 2-m surface temperature, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, downward shortwave radiation and downward longwave radiation were 0. 43 ℃, -2.9%, 3.7 m s-1, 28.2 W.m-2 and -36.2 W.m-2, respectively, the average RMSE （Root Mean Square Error） of them were 3.81 ℃, 18.2%, 4. 8 m.s-1, 163.5 W.m2 and 52 W.m：, and the average R2 of them were 0.84, 0. 32, 0.03, 0.7 and 0. 3. Simulation results of hourly 2-m temperature and incident short-wave radiation were ideal and can be uses in hydrological simulation in high time resolution.

关 键 词：驱动数据 降尺度 分布式 喀依尔特斯河流域 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]