实际工资、劳动就业与中国的货币政策模拟——基于动态新凯恩斯主义视域的一般均衡分析  

Real Wage,Labor and Employment,and Monetary Policy Simulation of China the General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Dynamic New Keynes Perspective

作　　者：郭春良[1] 吕心阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安71006

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2016年第4期73-81,126-127,共9页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：与传统计量经济学模型关注名义价格粘性和名义工资粘性不同,本文为排除"货币幻觉"的影响,从动态新凯恩斯主义的理论范式出发,设定价格和工资粘性的相关参数,构建符合中国宏观经济波动状况的随机动态一般均衡模型,然后观察实际工资、劳动就业对技术冲击、货币政策冲击的响应。数值模拟研究发现,该模型能够较好地拟合实际工资和劳动就业对技术冲击和货币政策冲击脉冲反应的经验特征。根据失业的历史方差分解,发现总需求冲击以及货币政策冲击在推动失业波动中具有重要作用,我国劳动力市场中存在着显著的"失业回滞"现象,这是经济增长的就业弹性系数相对较小的根本原因,也是抑制经济增长推动社会就业发挥作用的根本原因。同时本文提出,在研究中国劳动力市场和制定相关政策时,一定要密切关注产品和劳动力市场中的实际工资粘性等非完全竞争因素。Different from the traditional econometric model that is concerned with the nominal price stickiness and nominal wage stickiness,this paper excludes the influence of the 'money illusion',and constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which conforms to the fluctuation of China's macro economy situation by setting price and wage sticky from the perspective of dynamic new Keynesian paradigm,and studies the shock response of real wages,employment to technology,monetary policy. The numerical simulation study finds that the model can fit well the empirical characteristics of the impact of real wages and labor employment on the impulse response of technology and monetary policy. According to the history variance decomposition of unemployment,an aggregate demand shock and impact of monetary policy on promoting the important effect of unemployment fluctuations is observed and the labor market of China has a significant 'unemployment hysteresis'phenomenon,which is a primary cause for a relative small elasticity coefficient of employment during theeconomic growth and also decline the effect of economic growth promoting social employment. Meanwhile,when we study China's labor market and make the relevant policies,we need pay close attention to the actual wage and labor market in the actual wage stickiness and other non-complete competition factors.

关 键 词：价格粘性 动态随机一般均衡 方差分解 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F249.2