递增阶梯定价、分时定价与微观需求行为  

Increasing Block Tariffs,Time-of-Use Pricing,and Residential Electricity Demand

作　　者：冯永晟[1] 张昊[1] 阙光辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京市朝阳区曙光西里28号100028 [2]美国马里兰大学经济系

出　　处：《世界经济》2016年第7期24-48,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"通过结构重组;接入监管与定价机制改革构建中国售电侧市场的理论与实证研究"(71403288);国家自然科学基金面上项目"利用非线性定价促进能源节约的基础理论和实证研究"(G030602);国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国与周边国家电力互联互通战略研究"(13&ZD168)给予的支持

摘　　要：本文解决了非线性定价规则导致的电量与电价间的内生性、电力需求的引致性、消费者的复杂异质性和多种定价方式的组合性等4个理论难题,利用基于广义矩估计的完备结构计量模型和微观居民电力需求数据,研究了递增阶梯定价与峰谷定价组合下中国居民的微观电力需求,评估了阶梯和分时定价组合的政策效果。本文发现,阶梯和峰谷定价的组合难以引导用户合理调整用电行为,既无助于促进公平,也难以消除价格补贴,而且阶梯与峰谷电价之间存在政策效果冲突。居民电价政策的目标与手段错配,表明居民电价改革必须在整体电力体制改革的框架下协调推进。Demand analysis under nonlinear pricing, although provoking controversies in theory and policy-making, is of great importance for both pricing policies and market reforms. Using micro-household level data in China, this paper investigates China＇s residential electricity demand under the hybrid of in- creasing block tariffs and daily peak-load pricing through an integrated structural model and GMM tech- nique. We extend the GMM model adopted by Reiss and White （2005） to address four theoretical difficul- ties, from the endogeneity between marginal price and consumption due to nonlinearity pricing, and the heterogeneity in consumers＇ price sensitivity, to the derived electricity demand, and the combination of two different pricing policies. The empirical results show that the hybrid of two pricing policies is unable to guide consumers to appropriately adjust their demand behaviours, and cannot help to promote consumption fairness and to eliminate price subsidies. Moreover, the two pricing policies can present opposite policy effects. The mismatch between policy goals and instruments for the residential electricity pricing indicates that the pricing policy reform should proceed with the progress of an overall electricity institution reform.

关 键 词：递增阶梯定价 峰谷定价 电力需求 电力体制改革 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224