出口贸易转型升级能否缓解人口红利下降的压力  

Whether or Not the Transformation and Upgrade of China's Export Trade Can Alleviate the Pain of Demographic Dividends' Disappearance

作　　者：马述忠[1] 王笑笑[1] 张洪胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,杭州市310027

出　　处：《世界经济》2016年第7期121-143,共23页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473217);教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”资助项目(NCET-12-0496)、教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJA790038)的资助;浙江省哲学社会科学重点项目(14JDQY01Z)

摘　　要：本文将出口规模与价值链地位纳入异质性企业模型分析框架,考察了出口贸易转型升级影响就业的机制,并基于2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库与海关数据库的匹配数据进行了经验检验。结果显示:(1)出口规模扩张会对就业产生正向影响,但由于一般贸易出口规模扩张对就业的正向影响程度要小于加工贸易出口,因此一般贸易出口占比提升会对就业产生负向影响。(2)出口企业生产率的提升会对就业产生负向影响。(3)出口企业价值链地位的提升也会对就业产生负向影响。近年来,出口贸易转型升级体现出的出口企业一般贸易出口占比、生产率和价值链地位的持续提升,降低了企业就业需求,从而有利于缓解中国劳动供给不足的长期趋势以及人口红利下降的压力。By introducing the export scale and position of value chain into the heterogeneous firms model, tais paper theoretically studies the mechanism of how export transformation and upgrade affect em- ployment and empirically tests it with the matching data of China Industrial Enterprise Database and Cus- toms Dat tbase from 2000 to 2006. The analysis shows the following three points. （ 1 ） Expansion of exports significantly increases employment. However, as the general trade has smaller positive effects than process- ing trade, the increasing proportion of general trade will have a negative effect. （2） The productivity im- provemeiit of export enterprises tends to decrease employment. （ 3 ） The promotion of value chain of export enterprises can also impair employment. Recently, transformation and upgrade of China＇s export trade is characterized by the lasting promotion of proportion of general trade, productivity and value chain position. All these three factors lead to a decrease in finns＇ demand of employment, which will further alleviate the long-teml shortage of labor supply and the pain of demographic dividends＇ disappearing.

关 键 词：出口 转型升级 就业 异质性企业模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]