碳强度减排目标的实现机制与行业减排路径的优化设计  

Mechanism of Carbon Intensity Reduction and Optimization Design of Its Industrial Allocation

作　　者：周县华[1] 范庆泉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国精算研究院,北京市100081 [2]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院,北京市100070

出　　处：《世界经济》2016年第7期168-192,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71102125);清华大学绿色经济与可持续发展研究中心的资助

摘　　要：本文建立了分别包含碳强度目标约束和总量目标约束的多行业一般均衡模型,评估了中国现阶段实施的基于重点行业碳强度减排目标的政策对宏观经济的影响效果,解释了现阶段实施的减排政策产生就业红利,并有利于宏观经济平稳运行的原因。本文结论表明,随着中国碳强度减排任务的不断加重,当前政策的就业红利将不复存在,同时政策机制蕴含的资源错配、各行业边际减排成本不相等的问题则愈加严重,实施碳交易减排政策的时机逐渐成熟,政府应及时推出碳交易政策代替现行的减排政策。Through establishing a muhi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model which incorporates carbon intensity reduction target constraint and emission caps, this paper evaluates the effect on China＇s macro economy of the current policy about carbon intensity reduction target for enterprises with high energy consumption and explains why the currently-implemented carbon intensity reduction target has been promo- ting employment and the steady development of macro economy. The conclusion of the paper is that as the carbon intensity reduction target increases, the employment dividend brought by the current policy has been disappearing, accompanied with an exacerbation of resource misallocation and an imbalance of marginal costs of emission reduction among sectors. Therefore it is time that the government should promulgate carbon trading policy to replace the current carbon emission reduction policy.

关 键 词：碳强度约束 总量约束 政策减排效应 劳动就业 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224